Bitcoin strength holds around $68k but pro traders are cautious.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin regained $68,000 after President Trump hinted that the Gulf of Hormuz would remain partially closed, but that he would end the war with Iran.
Bitcoin derivatives data shows high fear, low options prices and low demand for bullish trades.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $68,000 on Monday, following gains in the S&P 500 after US President Donald Trump suggested his administration consider ways to end the US-Israel-Iran war without fully opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Bitcoin traders maintained a bearish stance according to derivatives benchmarks, indicating little confidence that the $66,000 level would last much longer.
Bitcoin's instant plunge to $66,000 came on a day when Google Research analysts revealed that the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) could be cracked with 20 times less quantum computing power. However, some traders realized that the entangled logical-physical qubits required for a successful attack were too far-fetched with current tools.
Bitcoin monthly futures contracts' annualized premium over regular spot markets stood at 2 percent on Tuesday, up from last week. Numbers below 4% indicate a lack of bullish interest because shorts (sellers) often demand a premium to compensate for longer settlement periods. After all, even Wednesday's rally above $71,000 failed to make investors feel bullish.
Bitcoin derivatives show limited demand for energy
Bitcoin prices showed strength last week, holding above $66,000, while the S&P 500 fell to a 7-month low on Monday. On Friday, the price of crude oil rose above $100 and this should act with caution. Hopes for easing monetary policy in the US fell sharply last month as pressure on oil prices pushed up inflation.
According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a less than 10% interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve from a 75% cut in July. High capital expenditure favors fixed income investments, keeps consumer spending down and reduces incentives for firms to grow. This situation will put an additional burden on the already weakened US labor market.
To understand that professional traders are bearish, one has to look at the Bitcoin options market.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin put put options traded at a 17% premium compared to call options. This level is often associated with the fear of devaluation. A range of -6% to +6% is expected in equity markets, ending in mid-January. Even though Bitcoin is down 23% so far in 2026, whales and market makers are not comfortable holding downside risk.
Related: Hyperliquid Whale Opens $53M Bitcoin Short–Should Traders Take Notice?
Bitcoin's resistance near $67,000 suggests that fears of quantum computing have been quickly dispelled, but something else could be behind the lack of excitement. Traders may be anticipating economic stimulus packages amid fears of a recession. In the early stages, such packages often support the stock market rather than Bitcoin.
Currently, most people see Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a paradise, which explains the bearish sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives. Therefore, one should not think that traders are waiting for a price below 60,000 dollars because the demand for bullish positions is weak.
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