Bitcoin Technical Indicator Predicts BTC Cycle Top in $174K–$462K Range
Bitcoin (BTC) recorded its highest three-day candle close at $72,724 on October 29, after rising 8.75% in 24 hours. Based on this key indicator, with BTC moving above the resistance above $71,500, investors could see a return on investment (ROI) in the range of 145%-530% over the next 12 months.
Bitcoin 3-Day Chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin price is likely to peak in the $175,000–$450,000 zone.
Bitcoin is close to breaking out of a seven-month price consolidation range, and after BTC hit new all-time highs (ATHs), the market is anticipating a period of price discovery.
While new studies and data have served different predictions in the past few weeks, Bitcoin has already followed the Fibonacci retracement levels listed between 1.618 and 2.272, each of which BTC has reached a high.
Bitcoin two-month Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView
As shown in the chart, every Bitcoin peak since 2013 has occurred between the 1.618 and 2.272 Fib, and at the current setup, the price target at 1.618 is $173,088, and the target at 2.272 is $458,319.
However, over the years, the price has continued to rise at a point slightly below the previous range measured by Fib. For example, in 2013, the price rose above the 2.272 mark. In 2018, BTC peaked just below the 2.272 Fib line, and in 2021, the $69,800 cycle high was below the 1.618 level.
Therefore, in 2025 or 2026, Bitcoin's peak could fall below $173,000 if the “four-year period of diminishing returns” trend continues.
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“The fate of the bulls is about to be decided” at $86,200
According to Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, the $86,200 level will be a critical point for Bitcoin bulls.
Referring to Bitcoin's short-term holder analysis and risk assessment chart, Adler Jr. explained that at $86,200, BTC reaches the upper border of high risk for the current cycle.
Bitcoin risk assessment chart. Source: Alex Adler Jr./X
Previously, the high-risk boundary served as a key level where short-term holders could take profits between January 2023 and January 2024 and BTC price reached a temporary price ceiling.
Activity above this level. It led to a major rally in 2021, during which the crypto asset's price discovery took place. Adler added:
“If the price breaks above this point and creates strong bullishness, we will finally see what everyone has been waiting for.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
