Bitcoin ‘Terminal Price’ hints at BTC’s next all-time high of at least $110K.
As the new bull cycle plays out, Bitcoin (BTC) may next “sell” at least $110,000, according to a well-known on-chain indicator.
Data from on-chain analytics platform Look into Bitcoin hints at a possible six-figure “terminal value” of Bitcoin.
BTC price to six figures in the next cycle?
As BTC's price action hits its highest level in 18 months, forecasters are already wondering how much higher it could go in the coming months and years.
After the next block subsidy is halved in April 2024, targets include $130,000, with late 2025 as the most popular deadline for the next cycle.
Analyzing the terminal price, See to Bitcoin creator Philip Swift described the value as a “simple” method of estimating long-term BTC price levels.
Terminal value is calculated from Bitcoin's so-called “forward value” – the value obtained by dividing the “coin days decay” (CDD) by the current supply.
CDD is a popular metric that measures how many sleep days reset each time BTC moves on-chain. It is useful as a measure of Hodler's intention and activity.
Created by Checkmate, the chain analyst at Glassnode's data firm Terminal Price comes at the top of each BTC price cycle.
The all-time high will not be reached at the terminal price, but BTC/USD reached its all-time high in 2017 and its first high in April 2021. The current all-time high of $69,000 was set in November of that year.
Therefore, SWIFT suggests that selling at “nearby” terminal value is an appropriate policy. Its bear market counterpart, “equal value,” similarly features significant market downs.
Buy near the equilibrium price, sell near the terminal price.
Could it be that simple? #bitcoin cycles. pic.twitter.com/llHytNVuxr
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) November 10, 2023
As terminal prices continue to rise, $110,000 may eventually become a conservative target with the next all-time high only coming later in the next cycle.
Waiting on the Pi Cycle crossover
In further analysis this week, Swift highlighted the “Pi Cycle Top” indicator, providing reliable long-term high estimates.
Related: CME Leads Institutional Acceptance of Bitcoin Future OI as ‘True Facts'
Pi uses two moving averages for its valuations, the crossing of which heralds the next high – even with days' notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top Indicator caught many off guard last cycle by perfectly identifying the top, including myself. Will it identify a Bitcoin top again this cycle?” Swift asked.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
