Bitcoin Trader Says BTC Will Head to $125K Even in the New Year Based on ‘Bayesian Probability’
Bitcoin (BTC) price has entered its first strong price recovery phase since December 2020, after the weekly chart closed above $80,000. BTC's bullish structure has shifted from a short-term to a long-term view, and many analysts believe six-figure price targets are long overdue.
Bitcoin may reach $125,000 on New Year's Eve.
Prominent market analyst Peter Brandt has highlighted that when Bitcoin decides to “tick” it tends to repeat its price action. The trader suggested a price of $125,000 based on Bayesian probability, taking BTC's current move above the previous ATH levels.
Bayesian probability or Bayes theorem determines the conditional probability of a future event based on past data sets. In layman's terms, it helps traders navigate uncertain price ranges by setting targets based on the asset's past performance.
Bitcoin 1-Day Chart Analysis by Peter Brandt. Source: X.com
Brandt explained that BTC's run in Q1 2024 could mimic that of Q4 2024, based on the aforementioned theory that it could rise to $125,000 before New Year's Eve 2024.
Meanwhile, Titan of Crypto, a BTC fan and trader, has indicated that BTC's bullish pennant target is $158,000. With $100,000 as the initial target for the second bull phase in 2024, the trader cited the completion of BTC's weekly chart's golden cross as key to bullish continuation.
RELATED: Bitcoin Price Hits $80K For First Time – New ‘Inflation Adjusted' All-Time High
Open the Bitcoin CME gap between $77,800 and $80,600
With Bitcoin prices up 5+% over the weekend, the CME gap opened between $77,800 and $80,600 on the daily chart on November 11. This is the first CME gap in a 1-day period since August 2024, and CME gaps are more likely to fill on the daily chart.
Bitcoin CME Futures 1-Day Chart. Source: TradingView
Therefore, if conditions change, Bitcoin may drop to $77,800 or less in the next few days. Scientist, an anonymous market analyst, also pointed out that BTC may be nearing a local high. Scientist added,
It will be a correction/consolidation for 7-10 days, expecting the price to stop around 84-85k before we resume.
However, it is important to note BTC's previous market behavior regarding the CME gap. Similarly, a small CME gap opened in 2023, after BTC breached a multi-month resistance level before making a yearly high in Q4.
BTC CME Futures Analysis from 2023. Source: TradingView
As can be seen in the chart, the CME gap was created with high visibility and was not filled until January 2025, when BTC prices rose another 23% from the CME gap.
If Bitcoin follows through on the above, the crypto asset could continue to soar higher, reaching a new all-time high above $100,000.
Related: $80K BTC Price Chases Gold – 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
