Days after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off in the first debate, Polymarket odds have shifted to show Harris pulling ahead. However, an analyst at British multinational bank Standard Chartered believes that a new Bitcoin all-time high will come this year, regardless of who wins the election.
As of this writing, Polymarket odds say crypto bettors favor Democratic candidate Harris to win the November 2024 presidential election by a narrow margin of 50% to Republican challenger Trump's 49%.
Still, the election is 54 days away and crypto punters on the decentralized prediction market have overwhelmingly backed Trump since February. It is also worth noting that US citizens are prohibited from using Polymarket. Of course, some American voters may have access to VPN services, but it's likely that most people gambling on the election aren't US voters themselves.
But for what it's worth, a more traditional election has seen Harris pull ahead of Trump for some time.
The crypto betting site also shows that Harris is in the future in two swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin, Polymarket now has a 58% chance of taking her 58% of the states' combined 25 electoral votes.
Source: Polymarket
The vice president came very close to flipping Nevada, which would have given her six more electoral votes. But he only rejoined the race in July when President Joe Biden left, and he still carries strong leads in three other key states: Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with a combined 46 electoral votes.
Many analysts have been saying that Trump's second term will be good for Bitcoin and the broader crypto industry. But Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research, isn't convinced the difference will be that stark.
“First, we think progress on relaxed regulations – especially the repeal of SAB 121, which imposes strict accounting rules on banks' digital assets – will continue no matter who is in the White House in 2025. It will be slower under Harris. The president of the presidency” wrote in a note shared with Decrypt.
He added that while the outcome of the election is still relevant to crypto markets, it is less so now than it was before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
The bank now predicts that regardless of who wins, Bitcoin will reach a new high before the end of the year: $125,000 if Trump wins and $75,000 if Harris wins.
“Harris' win may cause an initial price drop, but we expect the market to buy the dips as it realizes that the upside is still to come and other positive drivers take hold,” Kendrick said.
Edited by Andrew Hayward.
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