Bitcoin Will Reach $150,000 By Mid-2025, Bernstein Predicts

Bitcoin (BTC) price will reach $150,000 by 2025 due to upcoming “halving” and ETF approvals, Bernstein wrote in a Monday report.

Analysts at the $691 billion asset manager's crypto unit argue that it “serves as a price floor for each new cycle” based on the miner's minimum production cost, which shapes the asset's future price.

Defining marginal cost

In the report, Bernstein subscribes to Bitcoin's 4-year cycle theory – the idea that Bitcoin's price moves in 4-year patterns related to its spending schedule.

The program will halve the inflation rate of BTC once every 48 months. Another of these halvings is expected to happen in April, which will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

Analysts led by Gautam Chugani say that “in a halving year, the selling pressure will be halved (usually) and new demand stimuli will arise in each cycle, which indicates the beginning of a new Bitcoin price cycle with a new price loss.”

In previous cycles, the marginal production cost of Bitcoin has increased by several multiples, such as 5.5x in 2017, and 2.1x in 2021. By mid-2025, the researchers expect BTC to generate 1.5x its marginal value. production, which would be $150,000 per coin.

Bitcoin's marginal production cost is the “cost of the least efficient miner” to produce BTC. This price increases with each Bitcoin cycle as mining becomes more competitive and the Bitcoin bear market “washes out low-cost miners.

“We observe bitcoin's pattern as a multiple of marginal cost posturing with each cycle,” the report said. This is partly due to the “law of large numbers” – which means that as the value becomes larger, the returns on Bitcoin decrease.

The impact of ETFs

Selling from the supply side, Bernstein expects demand for BTC to pick up after the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in early January.

In the year By 2028, the analysts predict that more than 9% of BTC distribution will be held in ETFs, and after the reduction, demand for ETFs will “significantly exceed mining supply by 6-7 times.”

“BTC ETFs mean new inflows into BTC and integration with traditional ones through channels like brokerage accounts, wealth advisors, etc.,” Chugani added via DM to CryptoPotato.

Some analysts have predicted that the halving and approval of the EFF could hurt Bitcoin mining companies. The first means that less BTC is generated for miners, while the second means that institutions that invest in miners sell their shares as a proxy for BTC.

When asked about this theory, Chugani dismissed such concerns.

“Most of the views on miners are wrong because no one will take a new BTC price cycle,” he explained – which will increase mining revenues in USD-acceptance. “We are very confident that we will see a new cycle driven by the 150k mine supply/cost curves during peaking.