Bitcoin’s 7% decline to $77,000 is the May mark cycle low, the analyst says
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Bitcoin may have found a floor after sliding 7% to $77,000 over the weekend, according to analyst Plancy.
Key Takeaways:
One analyst says that Bitcoin's decline to $77,000 could be a capitation-type cycle low.
Rearview mirrors have outgrown the crashes that preceded major restorations, though the losses remain profound.
Other analysts warn that despite the recent upheaval, more downside is still to come.
In a post on X on Saturday, Plancy said there's a “good chance” the recent drop is not the start of a long decline, but a form of capitalism that is low.
Bitcoin briefly touched the $77,000 level before stabilizing and returning modestly to around $78,600, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin Drawdown echoes past statements that led to recoveries
However, the property is down more than 11% from last month and is roughly 38% below October's all-time high of $126,100.
Plancy compares the current price action to several historical lows that eventually preceded major recoveries.
He pointed to a 2018 bear market cap of around $3,000, a March 2020 Covid-driven crash to around $5,100, and a steep decline following FTX and Terra-Luna, with Bitcoin briefly trading in the $15,500–$17,500 range.
“There's a good chance we're going to get into another major announcement as we speak,” Plansey wrote.
In his view, the recent selloff may represent the final shakeout rather than a structural reversal of the broader trend.
Others urged caution but echoed the view that weekend activity could overstate market sentiment. Bitcoin advocate and financial accountant Rajat Soni pointed out that the fall occurred during one of crypto's most volatile trading windows.
Never trust a weekend pump or dump, cautioning traders against jumping to strong conclusions on short-term price fluctuations.
Still, not all market watchers believe the damage is over. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could slide to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also expects the bottom of the cycle to come later this year, perhaps around October, although he expects more rallies before then.
Adding to the cautious outlook, Fidelity's Jurien Timmer said 2026 could be an “off year” for Bitcoin, with prices likely to revisit the mid-$60,000 range before making a more sustained recovery.
Bitcoin slides as Fed warns, geopolitics sap risk appetite
Bitcoin fell below $89,000 after a brief session, under pressure from strong financial conditions and rising geopolitical pressure weighing on the risk asset.
According to XS.com analyst Samer Hassan, the Federal Reserve's stance of remaining hawkish, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, has reduced interest in speculative investments in crypto markets.
Market data suggests a weakening of sentiment among traders. According to CoinGlass figures, open interest in crypto futures is down 42% from a record high, with attempts at a write-off quickly reversed by a sharp sell-off.
At the same time, capital has turned to traditional venues such as gold and silver, as digital assets struggle to attract new inflows as volatility continues.
With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell showing little urgency to cut the pace and geopolitical risks, analysts say Bitcoin will remain a high-risk trade until policy eases or global tensions ease.
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