Bitcoin’s current 18% retracement is right on schedule and actually good news: Why?

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the early stages of a halving and is on track with analysts' predictions, according to crypto trader and analyst Rect Capital.

According to his tweet, Bitcoin's 18% retracement in the past weeks is expected, as similar declines occurred before the second and third quarters. This shows that BTC will repeat many of the events seen in previous events, including a post-halving surge that will take the asset to new highs.

Bitcoin is right on schedule.

The three Bitcoin halvings are the last pre-halving retracement, regrouping, and parabolic growth. The first stage usually occurs 28 to 14 days before the event and can last for weeks. The second stage comes after the frequency is reduced below and can last up to five months, and the third can last more than a year.

In the year During the 2016 halving, the rebound was 38% and lasted four days. In the year In 2020, it is 20% deeper and has been for eight weeks. Roughly 13 days after BTC's halving, the asset is down roughly 18% over the past three weeks.

Rect Capital notes that this cycle has shown some quality from both the 2016 and 2020 halves and as a result may repeat their pre-half price tendencies.

However, Rect Capital's goals in the first half of the rebalancing period include providing one last bargain buying opportunity, setting the stage for the next phase in this particular cycle, and creating a lower range for future restocking.

The beginning of the regrouping phase

On-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a rally. With the asset's resistance level at $70,000, Rect Capital said the market has established an upper retracement range.

Since the retracement comes after the retracement goes down, the bottom of the halving may also happen. The goal now, as Rect Capital says, is for BTC to go sideways up to the halving and beyond.

Notably, this is the first time that a restocking range has been created at a new all-time high. This will shorten the duration of the phase and the region may take the form of the normal sideways movement that the market has seen so far.