Bitcoin’s final leg will drop to $54,000 in the next 5 months, the analyst warned.
A number of Bitcoin indicators, including the Bull-Bear Sentiment Index and the Price Gauge, are pointing to a possible final push for BTC towards $54,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of the late stages of a bear market, but could go down another leg in the coming months, according to João Wedson, founder and CEO of blockchain analytics platform Alfractal.
Main Receptors:
Based on one sentiment indicator, BTC could still see one last big drop before it recovers.
The next downside target is Bitcoin's realized price near $54,000.
The BTC index indicates a drop to $54,000
In a post on Tuesday, Wedson noted that Bitcoin's 720-day Tactical Bull Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a long-term indicator that tracks multi-year cycles of fear and greed, has slipped below 20 into deep bearish territory.
Historically, such readings have reflected “late stage fear” among traders, a stage that could still produce one final shakeout before Bitcoin begins a more sustained recovery.
In the year In 2022, for example, Bitcoin fell more than 20% after the index reached similar bearish levels.
A similar setup was seen before Bitcoin lost nearly 50% in 2018, prompting Wedson to see a similar possibility in 2026.
Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘Almost Absolutely' Reversing 2022 Bear Market: Analysis
He warned that Bitcoin could still experience “like a -$15K shakeout” in the next six months, which would represent a 20% drop from current levels around $54,000.
Additional BTC applicants will collect 50,000-55,000 dollars
The implied target corresponds to bearish calls for BTC that see Bitcoin falling to around $50,000–$55,000 on war-led oil price inflation and quantum security concerns.
The $54,000 level is also close to coinciding with Bitcoin's confirmed price (purple) on Glassnode's MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, suggesting that any final shakeout could send BTC to the on-chain cost-base support level.
Analysts like Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone have warned that Bitcoin could eventually fall to $10,000.
Still, strategic aggressive Bitcoin buying in recent weeks has helped absorb selling pressure and limit BTC's downside, raising the possibility that a broader bearish trend could fail.
According to Cointelegraph, if Michael Saylor's company continues its buying spree, Bitcoin could reverse significantly and climb to $100,000 or more.
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