Bitcoin’s historical bottom indicator points to $62K support
Crypto journalist
Anas Hasan
Crypto journalist
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BTC is approaching a historically important support zone near $62,000 as the long-term tracked reserve cost indicator tied to Binance signals.
The $62k reserve cost level has not been tested since the US Spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024, raising fresh questions about whether the current decline represents a deep bear phase rather than a normal correction.
The warning comes as several technical and on-chain indicators turn bullish at once, even as parts of the market are set for a renewed bull cycle in 2026.
The cost of Binance Reserve changes post-ETF floor
The Binance Reserve RP, which tracks the average purchase cost of Bitcoin reserves on the cash exchange, has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear markets.
According to data shared by crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci, that level now sits at $62,000, a significant increase from pre-ETF norms.
Before spot ETFs were approved, the index hovered around $42,000, indicating a different market structure dominated by retail and offshore flows.
Beginning in January 2024, institutional participation changed price behavior, lifting reserve costs and redefining what constitutes minimum support.
“Bitcoin Spot ETF has never tested this level since its adoption,” said Kesmeci, noting that the price ended the entire bull run well above the $62,000 zone.
In his view, price action this year will determine whether $62,000 holds as a structural floor or breaks.
The metrics on the chain point to the first bear structure
Beyond the volatility-based indicators, data on the chain is also illuminating caution.
Bitcoin supply in bankruptcy has started to trend higher again, a reversal that marks the first stages of bear markets in history.
In previous cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the benchmark turned upward before prices finally bottomed out.
During those times, losses gradually spread from short-term holders to long-term participants as prices weaken.
Currently, the provision in bankruptcy is below the level seen when it is fully declared.
Giulio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed to similar bearish signs that emerged in early November and have yet to reverse.
They argue that the market may still be in the process of finding a sustainable bottom.
How low can Bitcoin go?
Moreno estimates that it may be below the reserve price of $62,000 using Bitcoin's proven value, which reflects the average price base of current owners.
His projected range next year will sit between $56,000 and $60,000.
Historically, long bearish bull markets have seen Bitcoin return to its true value after overshooting.
A move into that zone would mean a 55% drop from Bitcoin's all-time high of $125,000.
Despite the high volume, Moreno sees such declines as relatively modest compared to pre-bear markets.
Previous cycles have often resulted in losses of 70% to 80%, which is often compounded by downturns in the crypto sector.
Bitcoin technicalities clash with bullish narratives.
Technical indicators are also putting pressure on the bearish bearish.
A crossing of the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages, often referred to as a bull market EMA crossover, has recently been observed.
Historically, similar crossovers preceded deep bear levels in Q4 2014, late Q3 2018, and early Q2 2022.
If Bitcoin's current level is indeed a bear market, it challenges expectations that 2026 will provide another strong phase of growth for Bitcoin.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao introduced the idea of a Bitcoin “supercycle,” while Grayscale researchers questioned the importance of the traditional four-year cycle.
Bernstein maintained his $150,000 target for 2026, describing the current environment as an “extended bull market.”
Whether those predictions hold will likely depend on Bitcoin regaining its 50-week moving average, which is currently at $100,988.
Until then, analysts say the market is focused on low risk management.
After more than $4.5 billion in actual losses since BTC fell below $90,000, the next test of support could determine the true low of the cycle.
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