Bitcoin’s next parabolic rally hinges on a key data point

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) in 2025 passed one of the most intense distribution levels on record. While the sell-off is widespread in the market, onchain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be fading, possibly outlining the next BTC price period.

Main Receptors:

Long-term holders have distributed nearly $300 billion in BTC by 2025, marking a historic supply reset.

Heavy LTH selling took place near cycle peaks or during structural transitions, not at the start of a new downturn.

With selling pressure at a standstill, the next step may depend on how early the long-term bond supply stabilizes.

Historical Winds Supporting Bitcoin's 2025 Volatility

The price of Bitcoin (BTC), which has remained stagnant for at least two years, has moved on the chain in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of bitcoins have re-entered circulation after more than a year of hiatus. The 30 days between November 15 and December 14, 2025, marked one of the heaviest long-term hold (LTH) distribution periods in more than five years.

Starting in 2019, a sharp decline in long-term bond (LTH) supply is unlikely to stand alone. They appear in phases where the Bitcoin trend is under stress, approaching exhaustion or undergoing a structural shift.

In the year In 2018, the supply of LTH decreased from 13 million BTC to 12 million BTC, with the 30-day supply reaching 1.08 million BTC in December due to strong selling. At that point, Bitcoin had already spent months declining. Before the price rose to $11,000 in February 2019, it fell back to $11,000 in February 2019, showing how severe the LTH selloff is ahead of the recovery rather than signaling its end.

The 2020-2021 cycle unfolded differently. LTH supply fell from 13.7 million BTC to 11.65 million BTC, while Bitcoin rose from $14,000 to $61,000. The 30-day distribution high of 891,000 BTC did not stop the rally immediately.

Instead, the sell-off continued as prices rose, slowly eroding upward before the cycle finally turned upside down.

During the 2024-2025 bull run, the supply decreased from 15.8 million BTC to 14.5 million BTC, with the 30-day distribution peaking at 758,000 BTC. Prices rose slightly earlier in March, and both measures moved sideways in Q2–Q3, reinforcing a familiar pattern: price strength fades as long-term holders widen spreads.

The final phase in mid-to-late 2025 became even more abrupt. LTH supply recovered to 15.4 million BTC in June, before falling to 13.5 million BTC in December, the biggest drop on record.

Price weakness appeared in October, but heavy selling followed, with the highest 30-day circulation peaking in November at 1.14 million BTC. That sequence indicates a reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend, suggesting capital rather than orderly gains.

Related: Bitcoin RSI hints at $105K BTC price rebound as bull signals multiply

What could be a sign of a pause in selling?

Since December, the supply of LTH has stopped falling, currently around 13.6 million dollars, Bitcoin has entered the side territory. Further confirmation comes from the long/short bond supply ratio.

Whenever this ratio falls to -0.5 or below, Bitcoin has either entered a base-building phase or reached new highs within weeks. In December, the ratio dropped to -0.53, after which price volatility compressed and momentum stalled, more consistent with a reset than a trend continuation.

Thus, this combination, aggressive distribution and stabilization of supply, has historically marked transition phases rather than trend continuation. If the trend repeats, the consolidation in Q1to Q2 could serve as a base-building period, with any sustained rally likely to show up later and potentially into Q3.

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