Bitcoin’s strength stutters but they’re not giving up just yet.

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Bitcoin sits above $71,000 as weak U.S. economic data and the U.S.-Israel-Iran war drive investors to the rare asset.

Tech stocks' correlation to BTC and rising oil prices suggest that the 5-month correction from $126,000 may not be over.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $73,000 on Friday, successfully locking in the $70,000 support for the week. The findings came as the US reported weak economic activity data, raising fears of a looming recession amid the Iran war.

While socioeconomic events and institutional flows may be driving Bitcoin's bullish momentum, traders still question whether the bear market is truly over.

Economic uncertainty, BTC Bitcoin breakout, growing investor interest

The U.S. economy grew by just 0.7% between October and December 2025, a sharp drop from previous projections, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report released Friday. Although the last report was due on April 9, fears of a recession have increased throughout 2026, prompting investors to shy away from US Treasuries.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.26%, meaning investors are looking for higher returns to hold those assets. The risk of additional cash flows causes traders to seek shelter in scarce assets. This partly explains why the S&P 500 is only 5% off its all-time high, even as the economy continues to deteriorate.

On Monday, S&P 500 futures fell to their lowest levels in more than three months as oil briefly rose to $119.50. The US decision to temporarily authorize the purchase of Russian oil spilled at sea has reduced some of the risks. The move, announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant on Friday, eased the markets' short-term concerns.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has been flagged as a potential driver for the recent bullish impulse. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted net inflows totaling $583 million for four straight days, while analysts estimate the strategy ( MSTR ) has accumulated more than $900 million in yield-yielding STRC instruments.

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Bitcoin's momentum has turned stronger, but the bear market remains.

At first glance, the economic backdrop looks to injections of liquidity and increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, that doesn't necessarily mean the five-month correction to the $126,000 peak in October 2025 is over.

Bitcoin's 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 sits at 84%. As concerns over tight inflation and economic growth grow, the stock market is more likely to pull back. Traders are unlikely to use Bitcoin as a hedge, especially since it has recently underperformed compared to gold.

In addition, oil prices are 30 dollars higher than before the Iran war. These high fuel costs hit consumer spending and create inflation, which reduces the amount of capital retailers have for crypto investments.

From February 24 to March 4, USD 2.14 billion flowed into ETFs, driving a 14% rally, adding to the flow of BTC ETFs into the space. However, prices fell by 10% over the next four days as the flows reversed. This shows that spot ETF activity is reacting to the price of Bitcoin rather than acting as a leading indicator.

Bitcoin staying above $70,000 over the weekend may not change investor sentiment. While several tests of a five-week consolidation and $64,000 support have shown bulls' confidence, recent price action has not provided a clear sign of a breakout.