Bittensor’s TAO price could drop 40% in five weeks: Fractal Data

The recent 160% rally in Bittensor (TAO) is showing signs of exhaustion as it forms a golden-cross pattern on the chart, ahead of previous downward corrections.

Main Receptors:

TAO publishes the previous Golden Cross at an average discount of 40% in the past.

Bittensor's social volume is high, but retail excitement remains muted.

The price of TAO poses a risk of 40% decrease in the coming weeks

As of Thursday, March 26, TAO's 20-day moving average (20-day EMA, green line) was crossing above its 200-day moving average (200-day EMA, blue wave).

Traders view the short-term moving average as a sign that it is moving higher than the long-term. In the case of TAO, however, the pattern often appears near the top of the area, sometimes triggering a brief reversal follow-up before reversing sharply.

In the last three similar crossings, TAO decreased by approximately 38.50%, 32.50% and 45.50% in 5-6 weeks. That averages out to about a 40% decline, making Bittensor more likely to drop to $200 by early May if the pattern repeats.

The relative strength index (RSI) has remained above the overbought 70 level for weeks, further increasing the downside risk of the TAO. The reading suggests that the recent rally may have gone too far, too fast, adding to profitability or a short-term freeze.

Broader macro conditions add to the bearish case as the escalating US-Iran war pushes up oil prices, exacerbating inflation and weakening the case for recent easing by the Federal Reserve.

The TAO lineup still lacks an exciting retail feel.

TAO's rally has led to a surge in online chatter without any of the euphoria that typically signals local highs, according to data source Sentiment.

Social volume on X, Reddit, Telegram and other platforms climbed to its second highest level in 6 months, following the frustration seen around TAO's $529 peak in November.

At the same time, the sentiment is relatively low, only 1.5 positive comments for every negative.

“This is generally a good sign that the rally could continue, without much interference from greedy traders, especially as peaks form,” Sentiment said.

Related: AI and stablecoins are winning despite the 2026 crypto market crash.

Still, the TAO Golden Cross Fractal suggests that even rallies led by improving sentiment can turn into a bull trap.

In the last three similar golden-cross setups, TAO rallied again before turning lower to 15.6%, 5.7% and 42.6%.

That raises the average post-crossover to 21.30%, which could be a short-term Bittensor price rally to $420 or so before exhaustion begins.