Bitwise CIO: Three things are needed for Bitcoin to “melt” to $80,000 in Q4.
Matt Hougan Says Three Factors Will Push Bitcoin To $80,000 By The End Of 2024
Bitwise's CIO points to three factors that will see Bitcoin reach a peak of $80,000 by the end of 2024.
In a client note, Matt Hogan said the U.S. election, the economy and any negative crypto surprises to trade above $80,000 in the final quarter of 2024 could see a “meltdown” of Bitcoin.
By the end of 2023, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin will reach $80,000. He also indicated that the position of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is approved.
In his final note, Hugan stands by his belief that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high. Writing about the US election, the CIO noted that a Republican victory would be good for the crypto market “given the GOP's strong and growing advocacy for space,” while the election is “more complicated on the Democratic side.”
He added that Democrats have “different views on crypto,” from Sen. Elizabeth Warren's “anti-crypto army” to Rep. Richie Torres' deep support for the market.
“Bitcoin doesn't need politicians to thrive,” Hugan said. “They just need to get out of the way. Barring a Democratic sweep of both Congress and the White House, I suspect Democrats will do so as they take a more hands-off approach to the industry.
According to recent data, former US President Donald Trump will lead the polls with Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket's decentralized prediction market platform.
Lack of faith
Turning to the economy, Hugan said the US Federal Reserve's rate cut of 50 basis points and China's release of two trillion yuan in economic stimulus at the end of September fueled the crypto rally.
Hugan added that the market expects an additional 50 basis points of fiscal stimulus from the Federal Reserve and China by the end of 2024.
Turning to his third point, Hugan pointed out that if there are no major surprises, no lawsuits and no locked coins enter the market, a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 will be achieved. However, he pointed out that the crypto industry is full of surprises that affect the market.
“Over the past few quarters, previously locked-out bitcoin has contributed to our broader outflows from failed exchanges, Matt Gox, and government coffers,” he said.
Altcoins can help.
In Hugan's view, aside from the above three factors, a broader rally in crypto will help close Bitcoin's $80,000 bargain.
“Bitcoin doesn't need Ethereum, Solana, or novel altcoins for long-term success,” he added. But if we get a full meltdown in the short term — say, a crack at $100,000 in a few months — a little pro-crypto sentiment could help sweep the market. “
He believes those crypto “animal spirits” are in short supply during 2024, but sees them rising in projects such as stablecoins and Sui, Aptos and Monad.
“Strong and sustained stimulation in these areas reinforces the issue of dissolution,” Hogan said.
