BTC price centers at 43k
In the absence of new exchange-traded fund (ETF) news, Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to recover to recent highs on January 4.
Analysts hinted at slow progress in ETF approvals
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that the price of BTC is running above $43,000.
Analysts expected volatility on the day as rumors swirled about the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF in the United States. As of this writing, however, no announcement has been made.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seifert, in recent posts on X (formerly Twitter), emphasized that this week, on January 10th, he should see only an initial nod from regulators at best with formal approval.
“Today we're seeking 19b-4 amendment filings that incorporate the changes the SEC and issuers have been discussing for weeks. ie creating/purchasing money. (Honestly I kept these until now),” he said in the comments section.
“We are still waiting for approval orders, which could be next week.”
Markets also refused to price in the recent decision, with bitcoin broadly closed after recovering from the liquidation cascade earlier in the week.
As Cointelegraph reports, versions of how the price might react to the decision differ significantly, with both upside and downside predictions on the table.
“For now, the upside remains capped by resistance in the 46 – 48.5k range with support in the 40.5 – 42k range,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers on January 5.
Despite the wash, BTC has bounced back to the 44,000 level. While we are wary of a knee-jerk reaction to ‘sell the news', this relentless price action gives us more confidence in the medium-term crash outlook for BTC to halve in March/April of this year.
The debate over the “pivot” of the federation continued in the background.
Next, QCP touched on the main macro narrative regarding crypto market performance beyond ETFs.
RELATED: March Bank Crisis Risks 40% Bitcoin Crash Again – Arthur Hayes
This is the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and while there is little consensus for an important “pivot” coming this month, March could be a different story.
“Crypto prices continue to diverge from TradFi markets due to ETF narrative. Despite the Fed's dot plot forecast of 3 cuts in 2024, rate markets are pricing in 6 cuts for 2024,” the update continued.
If new data points to renewed strength in the labor market or higher inflation, such severe pricing in the stock market could quickly recover and turn into a macro risk, which is certainly a key macro risk to watch out for.
Bitcoin's next block subsidy halving event is shortly after the March rates decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
