BTC recovers $69k, derivatives point to further upside
Bitcoin (BTC) found support at $69,000 before falling to $66,000 on June 12 amid macroeconomic uncertainty, pressure from miners and withdrawals from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Slightly positive inflation data in the United States set a more dovish tone for risk assets, including bitcoin, sending the S&P 500 to a record high on June 12.
Traders are now debating whether Bitcoin can surpass the $72,000 mark, the initial market seems to support such a possibility.
Invulnerable inflation favors risky assets, including Bitcoin
May's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 3.6% drop in energy prices. According to CNBC, this data, although higher than the US Federal Reserve's target, was lower than market expectations and suggests a possible interest rate cut in September. As a result, US Treasuries saw selling pressure, pushing the two-year yield to a 10-week low of 4.68 percent.
It is important to assess whether the mining and ETF flows will continue to determine whether the June 12 Bitcoin rally was a short-term optimism spurred by macroeconomic data. Regardless of the bullish outlook on inflation and the prospects of a recession that investors are considering, Bitcoin's trajectory toward $72,000 will depend largely on institutional earnings.
Moreover, even sophisticated investors are concerned that miners can determine BTC price trends. When there are big moves from miners to exchanges, investors worry about price drops, and June 11 was no different. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Marathon Digital sold 1,000 BTC worth nearly $70 million on June 10, 2009. Such a sell-off, even if it is a one-time event due to unforeseen circumstances, can negatively impact investor sentiment on Bitcoin.
To make matters worse, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a collective net inflow of $65 million on the same day. As a result, traders estimated that these entities led to a significant net outflow of $200 million from spot ETFs on June 11, ahead of key macroeconomic events, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech after the monetary policy meeting in June. 12.
Bitcoin derivatives showed resistance at the $66,000 dip.
During the dip to $66,000, Bitcoin's main derivatives gauge showed strength, suggesting traders are not overextended. Bitcoin futures premiums, which measure the difference between monthly contracts in futures markets and regular exchanges, generally reflect a 5%–10% annual premium (base) to compensate for longer settlement periods.
Bitcoin's two-month futures premium briefly touched the neutral 10% level on June 11, but quickly rose to 13%. This recovery shows cautious optimism among traders, especially since the base rate can exceed 40% during extreme highs.
It is important to analyze the balance between calls (calls) and options to accurately assess whether the demand for long-term options reflects the overall market sentiment. An increase in polls often indicates a shift to a neutral or weak market outlook.
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Although data from June 10 and June 11 still showed a dominance of call options volume, the call-to-call ratio reached its highest level in two weeks, suggesting a modest increase in demand for defensive options. However, both Bitcoin futures and options markets indicate that, despite a bearish turn near the $66,000 level, the prevailing sentiment remains bearish. This indicates that Bitcoin's potential for further gains of up to $72,000 is still viable.
This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
