Buying Bitcoin? Hold BTC for at least three years to avoid losses

According to data shared by Andre Dragoš, head of research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin (BTC) rewards investors who have held it for at least three years.

Main Receptors:

Holding BTC for at least three years reduced the loss to just 0.70%.

Bitcoin price forecast for 2026–2027 around $100,000–150,000 in bullish scenarios.

Long-term Bitcoin owners rarely lose.

A Bitwise analysis reviewed Bitcoin price history between July 17, 2010 and February 11, 2026, concluding that the probability of BTC being in the red for at least three years drops to just 0.70%.

In other words, almost every rolling three-year entry point in Bitcoin history has been profitable. After three years, the risk of extinction is further reduced: 0.2% in five years and 0% in ten years.

In less than three years, traders who own Bitcoin have experienced huge losses.

For example, daytime shoppers were 47.1% more likely to be in the water. That probability increased by 44.7% at one week, 43.2% at one month and 24.3% at one year.

Strong hands already have 90% profit.

The guaranteed value measure shows the decline in losses to holders over multi-year windows.

As of Saturday, Bitcoin is trading around $65,000, down 50% from its October 2025 peak.

That was above the three- to five-year high of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held during that window are still sitting on roughly 90% of their profits.

Meanwhile, some traders argue that the next Bitcoin price correction could extend to $30,000.

Going to that level wipes out the teams cushion, leaving the three-five year band close to breaking even. That will further test whether these holders are beginning to increase selling pressure or hold tight.

On the contrary, most of the traders who bought Bitcoin in the last two years were underwater.

The cost basis of the 6m–12m collection was around $101,250 for those who held BTC for up to a year, a 35% loss as of Saturday.

However, the cost base for the 1y–2y group was lower, around $78,150, translating to an unrealized loss of 15%.

The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in the retention-time data: the longer the retention window, the greater the drop rate tended to be during correction.

How high can BTC price go?

Longer-term projections still cluster around a few supported targets for 2026–2027.

For example, global brokerage Bernstein maintained its 150,000 BTC price call for 2026, suggesting a relatively modest net outflow of 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs despite a 50% drop in BTC prices.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani said, “The current Bitcoin price action is just a confidence issue.”

Standard Chartered, meanwhile, has warned of a “last cap” level that could drag BTC down to $50,000 before recovering to $100,000 by the end of 2026 due to weak ETF flows and a tough macro backdrop.

Looking ahead to 2027, Timothy Peterson's historical “reversion to the mean” framework of It will reach $122,000 in early 2027.