Can a $60K BTC price support it? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin will begin the last week of June as BTC price moves closer to $60,000.

Since June 24th, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to test the bulls' nerves, shedding 1.25%.

Whether this holds or not is now the key question in the coming days with the monthly latest coming up.

To achieve this, Bitcoin has left several moving averages and entered the red by moving short-term holders below its total cost basis.

Demand is therefore seeing something of a temporary setback, and the focus is on whales in particular at their lowest prices in a month.

Factors adding fuel to the volatility mix this week include US unemployment data due on June 28 and revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, followed by the Fed's “preferred” inflation measure a day later.

If Bitcoin is to reset before the monthly and quarterly close, BTC/USD is now down 7% for the month of June.

Cointelegraph looks at the current BTC price landscape and examines the main issues among traders, which is already shaping up to be a significant week for the market.

BTC price has reached new six-week lows

Bitcoin disappointed after its recent weekly close, falling steadily to hit $62,128 on Bitstamp, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

This represents the lowest level since May 15, and as the weekly and quarterly closes in the coming days, bulls are now battling a 7% month-to-date loss.

“BTC looks weaker than I expected and I should see some more downside,” noted trader Crypto Ed wrote in part in a recent post on X, capturing the sentiment.

Crypto Ed added that altcoins, already suffering at the hands of BTC's price loss, could see another 20% plunge.

Fellow trader Dan CryptoTrades meanwhile lays out the key levels in Bitcoin's multi-month trading cycle.

“The golden pocket has reached a Fibonacci retracement level. If there are bulls who want to take this to a higher low, then this is the place to be,” he warned on the day.

“Growing should be directed towards the intermediate range again, failure to do so may result in low repeatability.”

Data from wealth tracker CoinGlass showed BTC/USD breaking above $62,000 with bid support. The past 24 hours has seen the release of nearly $48 million worth of BTC.

The PCE week comes as traders focus on Fed liquidity.

The macroeconomic data storm is set to return in the latter half of the week as US unemployment claims, revised Q2 GDP and May's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index are released.

Crypto markets have also shown sensitivity to unemployment data, especially in 2024, when PCE is known to be the Fed's “preferred” gauge for estimating inflation.

This in turn will have a significant impact on policy if the forecasts are significantly missed in both directions.

“Lots of important information to wrap up Q2 2024 this week,” summarized marketing resource Kobe's letter on X.

Kobeisi added that the PCE has a responsibility to steer the market away from the threat of “disruption”.

Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of crypto rating platform Eva, was among the crypto market watchers who predicted that the index would put the cat among the pigeons with a curveball reading.

“Market is expecting 28 #PCE this Friday. The #FEDs have picked inflation,” he told X subscribers on June 24.

“I expect #BTC #Crypto #Altcoins and other risk assets to read below expectations.”

The latest estimates from CME Group's FedWatch Tool show that markets continue to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates — a key period for crypto and risk assets — in September, not earlier.

Stocks leave crypto in the dust.

In striking contrast, Bitcoin and crypto weakness come at a time when US stocks are doing better.

The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs last week, highlighting its inverse correlation with Bitcoin and catching many off guard.

“Short interest in S&P 500, $SPY and Nasdaq 100, $QQQ, ETFs is now at 6-year lows,” Kobeisi said.

Since 2023, short interest as a % of shares has declined by over 50%. Meanwhile, the volatility index, $VIX, is down 40 percent since January 2023. Even during the fastest interest rate hikes of all time, volatility tends to move to lower lows.

“Market appetite has never been stronger,” concludes Kobeisi.

Elaborating, market analyst Thomas noted that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to the Fed's liquidity levels, which fell by $140 billion last week.

“Net Fed Liquidity is down 2.21% this week, bitcoin is down 4.77%. Stocks are now down slightly, with the S&P and Nasdaq down roughly 1% in 24 hours,” he wrote in a June 21 post on X.

Thomas noted, while uncertain, that liquidity levels are at or near lows in the area, indicating that a rebound should boost crypto performance across the board.

“These things are always difficult to predict, but if I had to predict the rough direction of Net Fed Liquidity in the coming weeks/months – I'd say where it is now is likely to be the lowest point or the lowest point with Net Fed Liquidity grinding upwards,” he predicted.

Earlier, further analysis of Bitcoin's Fed liquidity correlation concluded that the upside could be reversed with the monthly close.

Bitcoin whales under a microscope

As Bitcoin heads toward $60,000, some question whether current levels represent an attractive trade for the whale population.

In recent weeks, order book “rigging” prices have been seen several times to liquefy by introducing artificial volatility.

While the data is part of a whale of an increase in BTC exposure this quarter, the picture is not uniform, Cointelegraph reported.

As noted by popular social media analyst Bitcoin Munger last week, the largest part of the whales are accumulating trends that go against the rest.

Fast forward to this week, however, and confidence in the broader Well stock is growing at $62,000.

“It's clear that whalers have been buying this dip in record numbers – but the volume of sales doesn't justify the price cuts being managed by marketers who work for whalers,” argued his colleague Martiparti.

The accompanying chart from CoinGlass showed recent whale orders on the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual swap pair.

Data from Onchain Analytics Platform, CryptoQuant, on the other hand, shows a significant increase in flows to storage addresses since June 20.

Crypto sentiment closes at 2024 lows

At 51/100, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is nearing its 2024 low since June 24.

RELATED: Bitcoin Price Loses Ground As TON, PEPE, KAS & JASMY Grab Traders' Attention

Relatively small market price declines in percentage terms speak volumes in terms of sentiment.

Here, the index, which was hovering around “Extremely Greedy” just a week ago, is now flirting with “Fearful” territory.

Even as it nears $65,000, research firm Sentiment has noticed what it calls a “rare” panic among Bitcoin market participants.

The public is mainly afraid or not interested in Bitcoin as its price ranges from $65K to $66K. This prolonged level of FUD is rare, as traders continue to hold on, X commented on June 20.

“BTC trader fatigue, combined with whale stocks, generally leads to a patient payoff.”

The excessive bitterness of long-term traders has not gone away; Jelle described it as “getting worse every day.”

“Chop seems to be doing exactly what it's supposed to do: shake up as many people as possible before the ATH run. We have seen the same in previous cycles. This time is no different,” X's post read.

Income trading accounts income sharks argue that bad weather is the result of trading on sentiment.

“People lose money by over-trading in difficult situations and are very low on sentiment,” he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.