Can Bitcoin’s Price Rise Above $100K? Says On Chain (CryptoQuant)

Despite rallying above $99,000 last week, Bitcoin (BTC) is far from the overvalued levels that mark the end of a bull cycle.

According to on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant, the cryptocurrency could go from $100,000 to $146,000, which is the highest target in terms of realized price valuation. This view has marked the highest price for BTC in previous cycles, including the rally seen in April-May 2021.

There are no signs of Bitcoin market highs yet

Bitcoin price metrics suggest that the cryptocurrency is still in a bull market and has yet to overheat. One indicator is the CryptoQuant Profit and Loss Index, which is above its 365-day moving average.

Another indicator is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear market cycle indicator, which remains in the bull area and has been rising since early November, indicating that the bull phase is intensifying. Like the Profit and Loss Index, this one is far from the overheated bull level area that BTC entered when it hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024.

Additionally, the price of BTC held by new investors is not yet at its peak. This trend is ahead of the previous two cycle peaks.

At the time of writing, the value of BTC held by this group of investors hovers around 50% of the total amount invested in the cryptocurrency. In previous cycles, this figure rose above 90% and 80%, after which BTC started to seek higher again.

Retail activity remains

There is a huge lack of retail activity on the Bitcoin network. Retail activity on Bitcoin is usually high, when BTC investors are buying hard, when their source is nearing the peak of the cycle and the bull phase is coming to an end.

However, the opposite is the case now as retail investors have been reducing their holdings since October. Retail investors have dropped 41,000 BTC since last month, while large investors have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.

Meanwhile, the only gauge that seems to point to a short-term price correction for BTC is MSTR, a stock of business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, which is bitcoin's largest public shareholder. MSTR overheated and fell by about 30% this week.