Can BTC Drop To $80K?
Bitcoin faces downside risk as macro pressure and weak technicals could lead to a drop to $80,000 on a rising wedge crash.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw its lowest Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) in over a year, a sign that US-based investors are putting strong selling pressure relative to global markets.
Main Receptors:
US selling pressure increased as the Coinbase Premium Gap hit a one-year low during the market break.
If Bitcoin breaks out of the rising wedge shape, the risk of falling below $80,000 increases.
Selling holiday bad sign at BTC price
As of Monday, Bitcoin's 30-day moving average CPG fell to -63.85, its lowest level since January 2025. That reading preceded BTC's decline in price from $102,000 to about $78,350 in four months.
The CPG tracks the price difference between the USDT pair on Coinbase and Binance.
When the gap turns too negative, it means that Bitcoin is trading lower on Coinbase, suggesting that US traders are selling more aggressively than their offshore counterparts. When the gap is positive, it typically indicates strong US purchasing power.
The CPG low was created during the US market holiday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs were inactive. It showed that the selling pressure came not from the spot Bitcoin ETF, but from US whales operating outside of traditional currencies, analyst Mignolet said.
“It's one of the more traditional sales tactics we've seen time and time again,” he wrote in a Monday post.
The timing also coincided with a shift in broader market sentiment. U.S. futures fell as President Donald Trump escalated threats of tariffs against EU countries that opposed his plan to annex Greenland.
At the same time, traditional safe assets such as gold and silver were collected, which kept capital away from risk.
Bitcoin technicals raise the possibility of a decline below $90,000.
Bitcoin's daily chart also showed a rising wedge pattern, a pattern that usually shows that upside momentum weakens during corrective rebounds.
The price posted a higher low, but within narrowing trend lines, indicating that buying guilt is waning. If the macro pressure continues and puts the CPG into a negative state, the structure increases the risk of collapse.
A loss of confirmed wedge support could trigger a measurable downward move, as is common in rising breakouts, exposing Bitcoin to accelerated selling into previous interest zones.
Related: BTC vs. New $80K ‘Liquid Hold': 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
Based on the height of the pattern and recent historical responses, the $80,000–$78,000 area emerges as the primary downside target.
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