Can crypto traders predict Wall Street on Coinbase’s Q1 earnings?
Coinbase is set to share its financial performance for the first quarter of 2024, which has led to mixed speculation among the crypto community and traditional investors regarding the expected figure.
Before Coinbase announces its financial results on May 2, there is growing speculation that the crypto community's predictions will be more accurate than those of conventional investment analysts.
Kunal Goel of the crypto research company Messari stated that in the last three quarters, his Coinbase earnings estimates “hand in hand beat analyst estimates”.
“I predict Coinbase will generate $1.5 billion in net revenue in Q1 2024, growing 65% quarter-over-quarter. My estimate is well above the consensus estimate for total revenue of $1.2 billion,” he explained in a recent X post.
Coinbase has now beaten consensus earnings (EPS) estimates for the past four quarters, as well as consensus revenue in each period.
According to Tipranks, out of 24 consensus analysts covering Coinbase (COIN), nine have a “buy” recommendation, 11 have a “hold” recommendation, and three have a “sell” recommendation.
Former Polygon Labs CFO Young Ko believes Coinbase's earnings will “blow expectations” and is “very likely”.
In an April 24 post on Xx, Co explained that several indicators will strengthen momentum ahead of its earnings report on May 2.
These include the hope that Coinbase will announce a victory in its lawsuit against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and positive reports on the base income of the Layer-2 Ethereum protocol.
At press time, COIN's share price stands at $236.43, representing a 4.67% increase for the day, but a 15.47% decline over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance data.
“We know that those of us who follow it closely are going to blow street estimates,” crypto analyst Snow said in an April 22 post.
“The combination of the big Q1 beat before Q1 + Q2 trading revs tracking *ahead* is mind boggling,” Snow added.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst 0xCristian said in an April 16 post that the success of Coinbase's layer-2 network Base will have a positive impact on its Q1 2024 earnings report.
“It's going to beat Q4 earnings by a long mile and that will impact the stock price. Q1 saw huge volume for Base + Coinbase wallets. Pay attention,” he said.
Related: Coinbase Partners with Lightspark for Bitcoin Lightning Payments.
It's been widely speculated in the crypto community that revenue from Base could be the reason for Coinbase X this past quarter, which is largely ignored by Wall Street.
On April 19, Cointelegraph reported that crypto analyst Will Clemente said, “The path is not cost-effective for crypto natives, which I think a lot of crypto natives understand.”
“I think Coinbase is probably the biggest venture-style bet in the public markets since Tesla five years ago,” Clemente added.
Although Goel predicted Coinbase would “not make it in” revenue from Base last quarter:
“However, I expect Coinbase not to take this revenue in. I expect that this revenue can be kept on-chain and used solely to support development on Base in the future.
According to data from investment research firm Fintel, Coinbase's momentum score is 93.98, which is roughly 21.87 higher than Nvidia's ( NVDA ) index and 80.84 higher than Tesla's ( TSLA ) index.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
