Can Dogecoin Price Avoid a Bearish Downswing in October?

Dogecoin (DOGE) prices remain rooted at $0.06 territory, as bullish investors continue to HOLD their positions despite relatively flat performance in September. On-chain analysis explores key indicators that could impact DOGE price action in October. 

After weeks of price stagnation, Dogecoin miners have started to offload some of their block rewards. Can the Dogecoin price avoid a bearish downswing in October? 

Dogecoin Miners Have Offloaded 350 Million Coins In the Last Three Months

After a brief accumulation period in mid-September, Dogecoin miners are back in sell-off mode as prices remain stagnant. The Miners have now reduced their balances in three consecutive months.

On July 11, the Miners held a total of 4.7 billion DOGE in their cumulative balances. But the figure has dwindled to just 4.35 billion DOGE as of September 28.

This means that they have depleted their holdings of 350 million coins within a space of three months. 

Miners Reserves tracks the deposit balances in wallet addresses linked to recognized Dogecoin miners and mining pools. When benchmarked to the current market prices of $0.061, the 350 million DOGE sale means the miners have offloaded coins worth $21.5 million since July 11.

Considering that Miners control about 3.08% of the total DOGE in circulation, they could force a major downswing if they intensify their selling trend in October. 

Whale Investors Have Dailled Down Their Trading Activity 

On-chain data also shows that Dogecoin whale investors have reduced their trading activity recently. This further confirms the bearish DOGE price prediction. 

As depicted in the chart below, DOGE attracted 819 unique Large Transactions at the recent peak on July 25. It has, however, headed downhill since then, as the network recorded just 79 whale transactions on September 28. 

The Adjusted Large Transactions metric aggregates the total value of confirmed trades that exceed $100,000 on a given trading day while excluding amounts returned to an original address. 

A decrease in unique whale transactions is typically bearish for an asset’s price.  It means lower market liquidity, making it difficult for market participants to execute trades efficiently. 

Among other factors, the miners flooding the market and the downtrend in whale transactions could drive down Dogecoin prices in October 2023 and beyond. 

DOGE Price Prediction: The $0.05 Support is at Risk

The lack of movement in DOGE prices could evolve into a prolonged bearish reversal below $0.05 in the coming weeks. The In/Out of Money Around Price data, which depicts the entry price distribution of the current DOGE holders, also supports this narrative.  

It, however, highlights that the bears will face a considerable obstacle around the $0.05 territory.

As shown below, the 441,640 DOGE holders had bought 6.22 billion coins at the maximum price of $0.59. If they defend their long positions, DOGE could avoid the bearish downswing.

But if the bearish miners keep selling, Dogecoin price could eventually wobble below the $0.05 support level, as predicted. 

Conversely, the bulls could invalidate that pessimistic Dogecoin price prediction by reclaiming $0.07. However, 456,140 million addresses had bought 1.67 billion DOGE at the average price of $0.06. If the miners keep selling, that resistance level could prove daunting for the Dogecoin bulls.

Although unlikely under the current on-chain circumstances, the DOGE price could eventually hit $0.07 if that resistance level folds.