Can the Yankees come back? AI will call the World Series

Numbers never tell the whole story in baseball. But they tell us enough – we think.

Armed with AI and a handful of overlapping baseball statistics, we created a chatbot that predicts the outcome of the World Series.

On Monday, according to the odds, it was predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers would win Game 3 and finally take the World Series. As we saw last night, the chatbot got at least the first part right.

Today, the Dodgers are tipped to not only win the World Series, but to win the night game and become the first 4-0 winner since 2012 when the Detroit Tigers lost to the San Francisco Giants.

That result is somewhat different from what the betting markets predicted yesterday and today.

The chatbot we built is basically GPT loaded with performance data scraped from Baseball Savant and Statmouse. Then we threw in a crash course in sabermetrics—baseball's mathematical backbone—to help us understand what those numbers mean.

Building the model was easy (we created a guide to help you build your own bot on anything) We didn't know which stats were most important, so we fed it with everything we could find: raw data covering team performance and player stats up to 2024; Latest game data including play-by-play details to keep the model up to date; And lots of weird stuff like exit velocity, a pitcher's arsenal, arm strength, and hitting left and right handed pitchers.

Finally, we provide an analytical framework—a “chain of thought” process that balances historical patterns with current opportunities. We tested the model and modified the query until we were satisfied with the results. And when we're done and let's hit the “Save” button…

threw an error. It could be a temporary server error that didn't allow us to save our changes.

Regardless, we managed to screenshot some of the amazing reactions before it released itself. The model predicted a 60% chance of the Dodgers winning last night's game, while the Yankees are 1-2.

For the final score, our bot zeroed in on one statistic: teams that win the first two games of a seven-game streak win 80% of the time. This sounds pretty accurate, and besides, you probably already know this from listening to the announcers at last night's game.

Our AI has digested years of World Series data with up-to-date statistics. For the Yankees-Dodgers matchup, the Dodgers showed a slight edge in the overall pitching statistics, with the Yankees' relievers dominating throughout the game.

Results are split from popular prediction markets. Polymarket oddsmakers, for example, give the Yankees a 56% shot at taking Game 3, seeing three straight losses as unlikely. Meanwhile, our chatbot focused on broad patterns.

The game eventually ended with the Dodgers winning 4-2. Our model was correct because Los Angeles won by two more runs than New York. At least this time, DI (DJN Intelligence) has not defeated AI.

What about tonight – and the series?

Things looked bleak for the Yankees yesterday, but the scene is bleak today. We asked our chatbot about their chances of recovering and winning the next four games. If this happens, it will make a huge mark in American baseball history.

The chatbot gave the Dodgers a 55% chance of winning tonight and sweeping the series.

“In MLB postseason history, only one team has successfully come back from an 0-3 deficit in a seven-game series: the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees,” our chatbot said. Similarly, he gave us a statistical calculation for four wins, giving the Yankees around a 6% theoretical chance of making history, coming from behind and winning the series.

If we drop things that affect the performance of the teams, things go down a lot.

“If we assume a low probability of winning a game[due to the strength of the Dodgers this season]the probability decreases accordingly. For example, if we believe the Yankees have a 40% chance of winning a game, their probability of winning four in a row is 2.56%,” said our chatbot. According to our chatbot, the Dodgers are in a much better position. They're on—so instead of a 50-50 scenario, he believes a 60-40 chance for the Dodgers to win is more realistic.

Polymarket dudes are stubborn. That's the odds for tonight's game. 58% in favor of the Yankees At the time of writing this article. Our chatbot doesn't mind. However, he reminded us that some things, like a game in New York and a sense of urgency that can take a toll on players' bodies, can favor the Yankees. This was enough to slightly increase the Yankees' odds for our spot from 40% to 45%.

That's hardly enough to call it a fair 50-50, and it still doesn't go with our favorite prediction market.

A 90% chance of losing the World Series is hard to ignore, but in baseball, one loss can rewrite the narrative and overturn even the tightest of predictions. Maybe our chatbot needs more heart, but Polymarket's Digits could use a dash.

Edited by Andrew Hayward.