Can Toncoin Save Another 30% in September?

Toncoin (Ton) lost more than 25% in value following the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov on August 25th, dropping to $4.45 on September 6th, followed by a quick 15% rebound above $5.15. On September 9.

Despite the recovery, the technical indicator suggests that Toncoin may be at risk of continuing its current downward trend.

The price of a ton threatens to decrease by 30% in September

Ton's ongoing price recovery is part of the reversal cup-and-handle pattern, which is a round top formation and consolidation period.

The reversal cup and handle is a bearish continuation pattern; It usually resolves when the price breaks below the usual neckline support and falls to the maximum distance between the top of the cup and the neckline.

On September 3, the TON/USDT pair dipped below $5 after slipping below the neckline support. A week later, the price was testing the same neckline as resistance.

Taking the neckline as support can devalue the reverse-cup-and-sleeve pattern. However, a successful test, when the price fails to move back above the neckline, confirms that the previous support has been pushed back into resistance, indicating that sellers are still in control and that the breakout is likely to continue.

If so, the lower target for a ton could be around $3.60, which would be roughly 30% below current price levels.

Crack down on Telegram, Durov is getting stronger

The outlook for Toncoin has been bolstered by its ties to Telegram and Durov, largely due to the ongoing global move on the messaging app service.

For example, South Korea has joined an international campaign against Telegram, investigating a platform that facilitates deep-fake crimes. India, Telegram's biggest market with more than 100 million users, launched an investigation shortly after reports of Durov's arrest.

Indonesia is considering shutting down the platform due to insufficient content moderation. Meanwhile, the European Union is reportedly investigating Telegram for providing false user information.

Related: Toncoin reaches $13.96B market cap amid Durov debacle

Negative sentiment surrounding these legal challenges may continue to weigh on tonnage prices as investors may anticipate further market uncertainty or walk-outs from the project.

However, the tuna whales seem not to be happy with the negative coverage. Following Durov's arrest, investors with 10 million – 100 million tokens (brown) have seen an increase in their holdings.

In addition, the total price-locked (TVL) on the Ton ecosystem increased during the September price drop, with the launch of games and memecoin projects – such as DOGS – on the network.

Thus, the core Toncoin ecosystem continues to attract users and developers, helping to balance headwinds in the long run.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.