Cardano price threatens $0.25 challenge — still hope
Cardano's price is trading near its weakest levels of the year. The token is down roughly 24% over the past 30 days and about 5% over the past 24 hours, close to its yearly low of $0.37. It's not just the size of the plate that makes this move stand out, but the structure behind it.
In the span of two months, Cardano has completed two separate bearish continuation intervals, putting new pressure on the chart and raising the risk of a deeper move.
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Two bearing failures in two months are symptomatic of structural weakness
The first crash occurred in early November. ADA built a covert flag until late October, then collapsed around November 11th. That move led to a sharp decline, with the price falling nearly 38% from its flag high.
After a brief consolidation, Cardano repeated the pattern. By late November and early December, the second carrier flag was created. On December 11, the ADA was breached again, marking the second such move in two months.
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When markets post repeated bearish continuation patterns without meaningful recovery, it indicates sustained seller control rather than panic selling. If the current breakout follows the same move-move logic as the first one, bearish targets will begin to gather near the $0.25 zone.
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Why can this weakness itself limit further damage?
Despite the bear structure, there are two factors that make the downside risk slightly softer.
First, the position of derivatives is already very skewed. The gate liquidity data shows that long leverage is thin, with only about $27 million in long positions, while short exposure is $135 million, 5x more. Most long liquid stacks end around $0.36, meaning that forced selling pressure will be significantly reduced at that level. A few tight long sleeves reduce the chance of leakage.
Second, long-term owner behavior is stable. The 1-year to 2-year group, often seen as the top offenders, has significantly reduced spending, as seen through the Spent Coin scale, segmenting activities into groups.
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Coins moved by this group dropped from 666.24 million ADA to 2.48 million ADA since December 10th, a decrease of about 99.6%. This suggests that selling pressure from committed owners is drying up, despite weak prices.
Simply put, the weakness of the ADA has been counterproductive and has slowed long-term sales, which can act as a temporary brake during times of broader market stress.
Key ADA rates to look at
Cardano's price chart remains weak. $0.36 is the most important recent support. The same level is highlighted in the fluid map shared earlier.
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A clean break below that would open the door to $0.33, and then, a measured breakout target near $0.25 would come into focus.
Any bulk reset requires an ADA refund of $0.48. Without that, arrays are fixed, not fixed.
Currently, Cardano is in a dangerous position.
Two crashes in two months define the trend. Weakness itself can reduce failure; However, unless the structure improves, the risk of a $0.25 test cannot be ignored.
