CoinMetrics Research BTC and ETH are protected from 51% of attacks
Due to 51% attacks, it is not viable for nation-states to take down the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks due to the astronomical costs, according to a recent study by crypto data firm CoinMetrics.
A 51% attack refers to a malicious actor exceeding 51% of a miner's hash rate in a proof-of-work system (such as Bitcoin) or 51% of a crypto-share in a proof-of-stake network (such as Ethereum). . Attackers could theoretically use this power to block the blockchain from receiving confirmations for new transactions, or to duplicate tokens to reverse transactions.
Attackers could theoretically use this power of the blockchain, such as preventing new transactions from getting confirmations or double-spending tokens – eroding trust and completely disrupting the network.
In a Feb. 15 report, CoinMetrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matthias Andrade argued that there is no viable way to achieve 51 at current capital and operating costs. % control.
9\ Furthermore, if the goal is to destroy these networks, we have not found a way for a nation-state attacker to consistently conduct a 51%/34% attack.
Likelihood of Retaliatory Techniques Ideologically Driven Attacks Cost Each Round of Retaliation.
Finally, the network will be saved.
— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) February 15, 2024
The authors used a metric called “total cost of attack” (TCA) to accurately measure how much it would cost to attack a blockchain network.
Using TCA, the report concluded that there are no profitable ways to attack the Bitcoin or Ethereum networks, negating the financial incentive for a narcissistic attacker.
“There are no attacks presented here by any hypothesis [would the attacker] Being able to profit by attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum,” reads the report.
“Even in the most profitable double-spend scenario, where the attacker might get $1B after spending $40B, this still accounts for a 2.5% rate of return.”
Analyzing secondary market data and real-time hash rate output, the report found that a 51% attack on Bitcoin would require the actor to purchase a staggering 7 million ASIC mining rigs.
Noting that there simply aren't enough ACC tools on the market, the report moves on to the next attack vector, which could be exploited by a particularly “relentless” actor.
Assuming that a nation-state attacker had “enough resources” to produce their own mining rig – only with the Bitmain AntMiner S9 as a “plausible” tool that could be reversed for production – it would still cost north of $20 billion.
Ethereum 34% of attacks also failed too much
The report also found a 34% risk of potential attacks on Ethereum from Lido validators.
The continued growth of Liquid Staking Derivative (LSD) providers – namely LidoDAO – is considered by many to be a serious threat to the Ethereum network.
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However, the report concluded that using LSDs to attack an Ethereum block would not only be time-consuming, but also incredibly expensive.
“We estimate that an attack on Ethereum will take 6 months,” Nuzzi said.
“This will cost over $34B. The attacker has to manage over 200 nodes and spend $1m on AWS alone.
Castle Island Ventures partner Nick Carter hailed CoinMetric's research as “very important.” Carter noted that previous analyzes had been mostly vague or theoretical, and that this report was the first time a rigorous, objective analysis had been done.
“This is an analysis that has not been possible before. This is a major contribution to the literature, and one that I personally have been waiting for for a long time,” Carter wrote.
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