Crypto Crime Rises to $158B by 2025
Journalist
Hassan Shitu
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A new report by blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs shows that crypto-related crime will have a high value by 2025, even as illegal activity in the broader digital asset economy is generally on the decline.
The report estimates that the value of illegal cryptocurrencies will rise to $158 billion by 2025, up 145% from $64.5 billion a year ago.
Despite the sharp increase in the value of the dollar, illegal transactions made up just 1.2% of the chain's total volume, down from 1.3% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2023.
These numbers are broadly similar to estimates released this month by Chinalysis, which estimated that crypto crime would reach $154 billion by 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total crypto activity.
Illegal actors hold a small amount of crypto capital despite their large volume
To better capture risk, TRM introduced a new metric that measures illegal activity in terms of capital employed rather than raw transaction volume.
With this method, illegal players took 2.7% of crypto liquid, compared to 2.9% and 6.0% in 2025.
According to TRM, the data suggests that while some illegal categories have expanded in absolute terms, criminal actors have taken a smaller amount of new capital into the ecosystem.
In the year In 2025, sanctions-related activity led to an increase in illicit flows, mostly related to Russia-related flows. TRM attributes its development to the use of A7A5, a ruble-based stablecoin that generated more than $72 billion in revenue during the year.
At least $39 billion of transactions were linked to Russia's sanctions-avoidance system A7, indicating a higher degree of coordination of activity related to state-owned financial infrastructure than widespread use of the market.
Stablecoins were the primary vehicle, and as enforcement increased, activity moved into less regulated and riskier channels.
Cryptography has been reconfigured by geopolitical pressures affecting various areas, with Venezuelans becoming the main users of Storicoin and peer-to-peer transactions to pay for their daily income, transactions and informal services due to economic instability.
In Iran, crypto buying and selling activities have remained invulnerable to the sanctions, with the total amount of transactions decreasing in June 2025 Iran-Israel war, yet the values came out, indicating large transfers, illegal operations reached up to $580 million.
Scams, Hackers and AI Fuel Crypto Crime in 2025
Crypto theft is another key factor in illicit volume, with 150 hacks and exploits worth $2.87 billion by 2025.
While the number of problems has decreased slightly, the number of losses has risen as attackers began targeting operational infrastructure instead of smart contracts.
In February, a single breach at Bybit linked to the North Koreans cost the company $1.46 billion, or more than half of its total annual losses.
In total, five cases accounted for about 70% of the stolen funds, showing the impact of several large-scale attacks on the annual results.
Similar to 2024 levels, fraud has caused losses of up to $35 billion, assuming fraud continues. Investment scams, including pig farming schemes and so-called Ponzi operations, account for two-thirds of that figure.
Stablecoins have dominated the proceeds of fraud, and TRM found that criminal networks have used generative AI to speed up legitimate fraud and create more convincing deceptions to move funds within days of receipt.
Other illegal markets have also flourished, with online drug trafficking reaching over $3.4 billion in crypto volume, mostly through Russian-language dark markets.
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