Crypto derivatives will gain $86t by 2025 when Binance volume controls
Cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume will rise to about $85.7 trillion by 2025, an average of about $264.5 billion per day, according to a report by liquidity data tracker CoinGlass.
Binance led the market with a total of $25.09 trillion, or about 29.3% of global trade, meaning nearly $30 out of every $100 goes through the exchange, CoinGlass said.
Okex, BayBit and BitGate followed, each posting between $8.2 trillion and $10.8 trillion annually. These four exchanges account for 62.3% of the total market share.
CoinGlass previously traded Binance on Bitcoin (BTC) futures in 2018. Institutional avenues have widened in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options and compliant futures, aiding structural growth for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which has opened interest in 2024 and strengthened its footing in 2025, he said.
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Derivatives grow in complexity.
CoinGlass says derivatives will grow in complexity by 2025. The market has moved away from a retail-led, high-capacity boom-and-bust model to a mix of institutional hedging, basis trading and ETFs.
This shift came at a cost, as deeper supply chains and more interconnected positioning increased “tail risks.”
“The extreme events of 2025 will put unprecedented stress tests on existing margin strategies, liquidity rules and cross-platform risk transfer mechanisms,” he said.
Global crypto derivatives fell to an annual low of nearly $87 billion after rallying in the first quarter, then hit a record high of $235.9 billion at the midpoint of the year on Oct. 7.
A sharp reset in early Q4 wiped out more than $70 billion of positions, about a third of total open interest, in a flash transfer event. Even after that shakeup, year-end open interest of $145.1 billion was still a 17 percent increase from the beginning of the year.
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The October liquidity shock exposed pipeline concerns
The biggest stress test of the year arrived in early October. CoinGlass was founded in 2010. In 2025, he estimated the total forced liquidations to be 150 billion dollars, but a large part of the losses occurred between October 10 and 11, liquidations peaked at 19 billion dollars. Most of the clearing was on the long side, with 85%–90% of the liquidation coming from traders at higher prices.
CoinGlass linked the crash to US President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. That has pushed markets into a “dangerous loss.”
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