Crypto traders bet $2.4M on Ether ETF decision
Crypto gamblers are placing bets on whether ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31.
According to Polygon-based crypto gambling site Polymarket, traders have placed “yes” or “no” bets on whether the Space Ether (ETH) ETF application will be approved before the end of May.
More than $2.4 million worth of bets have been taken, giving the Ether ETF a pessimistic 81% chance of approval before the deadline.
Crypto traders buy yes or no stocks based on their predictions of how things will go. The share price represents betting odds and will change accordingly with how the crypto market moves.
Currently, Yes's share price is $0.19, while No's price is $0.81, which means few gamblers believe in the possibility of ETH ETFs being approved by the end of May.
The top Yes trader holds about $84,000 in shares, while the top No holder has about $127,000 in No shares.
If the SEC approves the Place Ether ETF before the betting market's deadline of May 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will be settled, meaning that yes, holders of shares can cash out their earnings. However, the reverse also applies if there are no approvals before the deadline.
Related: Bitwise files with SEC for spot ether ETF listing
This isn't the first time crypto traders have gambled on ETF approval results. On January 5th, Reddit users criticized Polymarket's gambling site for betting on whether Bitcoin ETFs would be approved by the SEC before January 15th.
One Reddit user called the bet stupid, saying it was like betting dollars to win diamonds. Meanwhile, another joked that they were about to lose their son's college fund to a bet.
Total bets on the ETF's results hit the forecast market of at least $12 million. The SEC finally approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10.
Investment management company Greyscale expressed confidence in the SEC's positive ruling for the SpotEther ETF in May. On March 25, Grayscale Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm said the SEC's perception of a “lack of engagement” with applicants does not indicate whether an ETF will be approved.
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