Despite mixed feelings, Solana collects around $93
Solana (SOL) is trading above $82 at the time of writing on Monday, marking its fourth consecutive day of recovery. While the funding volume for SOL futures is increasing, the simultaneous decline in open demand suggests that sentiment is divided. From a technical perspective, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $88.80 stands out as a key resistance level to watch.
Derivatives indicate optimism, but participation declines
Although overall participation in SOL futures contracts is declining, market data suggests an increase in bullish positioning among traders. According to CoinGlass, OI-weighted funding increased from 0.0042% to 0.0067% on Sunday, indicating that traders with long positions are willing to pay a premium – usually a sign of rising confidence.
However, this optimism is not fully supported by market activity. Open interest in SOL futures fell from $5.07 billion to $4.97 billion, indicating a decrease in total marketable capital. This difference—rising open interest alongside falling liquidity—underscores mixed feelings, with a brutal bias but limited conviction.
Institutional demand is soft.
Institutional demand for Solana is showing weakness. SOL-oriented exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net weekly outflow of $5.24 million, marking a second consecutive period of outflows, according to SosoValue data. If this trend continues, it could represent the longest weekly inflow to date, adding downward pressure to the SOL spot price in the near term.
Will Solana extend the recovery to $93?
The 4-hour chart of SOL/USD is very bullish and ineffective, with the coin up nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. At press time, SOL is trading at $82.50 per coin.
The recent bias is compounded as the SOL holds well below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, holding a broad corrective structure.
The momentum indicators have taken a bullish turn in the recent past with further gains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line, indicating persistent buying pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the neutral 50 at 60, indicating rising bullish momentum.
If the rally continues, Cardano will face immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA near $88.81, which again awaits a strong move towards $98.02, before reaching the 100-day EMA at $102.18.
However, if the sellers regain control, the support zone between $75.63 and $77.60 could act as a reversal point. Extended selling pressure will focus on the February 6 low at $67.50.
