Ether can struggle to provide a meaningful rally in 2025: 10x research
Marcus Thielen, head of 10x Research, said that Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for the 2025 bull run, predicting that the asset could generate smaller returns compared to Bitcoin.
Other analysts say it could go either way and are waiting for further confirmation from the price chart to see which way it goes.
“While the possibility of a new trigger cannot be ruled out, it would not be surprising if Ethereum struggles to deliver a meaningful rally next year,” said Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, in a December 30 market report.
Ether is a ‘poor' investment for the medium term, says the analyst
“While we appreciate Ethereum's volatility, we believe it is a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to outperform BTC in 2025,” Thielen said.
“As a result, our position on Ethereum remains clear: ‘Avoid'.”
Thielen says one of the most important dimensions to watch in 2025 will be the trend toward active verifiers. However, Thielen noted that the 1-month rate of validator growth has turned negative and has declined by approximately 1% over the past 30 days, indicating that there is an increasing risk of more validators leaving the network.
Ethereum Active Validators From 1 Month Change in Validators Chart. Source: 10x research
Thielen said the rise in unstaking seems “logical”, arguing that Ethereum lacks “real interest” outside the stall.
Others may disagree with this statement.
Tim Lowe, chief business officer of Attant, recently told Cointelegraph that the demand for Ether could easily increase with net trading and a unified price proposition, which would naturally lead to more investors accumulating over time.
Lowe sees exploitation from Bitcoin as a simple boost for Ethereum.
Ether was low compared to Bitcoin.
Since January 1, Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 121.4%, while Ether has returned 46.29% during the same period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
On January 11, a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) was launched in the United States, sparking strong interest and helping Bitcoin's price reach new highs two months later. Although Ether ETFs launched in the US in July, demand has been significantly lower than Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a more bearish outlook on the asset.
Bitcoin ETFs saw $35.27 billion in inflows for the year, while Ether ETFs totaled $2.66 billion.
Thielen said the MemCoin rally missed its peak and the market “revolved,” saying Duncan's reform in March — which lowered network gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions — was “six months late.” A “more cost effective” Solana (SOL) alternative.
There is also doubt about the Pectra update, which will be introduced at the beginning of 2025.
“Of the 19 revisions so far, only two have had a positive impact on price, and even those occurred during Bitcoin bull markets,” Thielen said.
“The three major Ethereum catalysts of 2024 have mostly fallen, adding little value overall,” he said.
Ether is trading at $3,351 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Thielen says Ether will likely continue to underperform Bitcoin in 2025, although other crypto analysts say Ether's price is uncertain and could go in either direction.
Anonymous crypto trader Cold Blood Schiller said in a Dec. 31 X Post that Ether has been “range-bound” since Dec. 25, and both scenarios could be at play.
On the bright side, he suggested that Ether could “sweep” for inflation. On the contrary, it could break down towards the December 20 low, which could retest the $3,000 level.
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Echoing the same sentiment, anonymous crypto trader Dal Ether believes it could go in one of two directions.
“Holding hard, I think we could clear 3,102 if we flip 3,554 and if we can't flip back to 4k,” Dal said in a Dec. 31 X post.
Michael Van de Pop, founder of MN Capital, is more bullish on Ether and believes it is showing signs of a breakout against Bitcoin in January 2025.
In a December 24 X post, van de Pop said, “$ETH / $BTC will not be surprised if it breaks at 0.04 in January.”
At the time of publication, the ETH/BTC ratio — a measure of Ether's relative strength to Bitcoin — is 0.03571, according to TradingView data.
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This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
