Ethereum bulls and bears battle to win this week’s 2.8B ETH options.

Ether (ETH) is trying to hold above the $2,600 resistance level following a 15.1% gain between September 18 and September 23. Recent macroeconomic data indicating a weak economy has created a rally in the stock market, increasing short-term demand for government bonds. In this context, traders will be able to strengthen the current crash rate with the upcoming $2.78 billion monthly Ether options expiring on September 27.

Why is the price of Ether improving?

The rise in the price of Ether was mainly due to the reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. As a result, the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on September 24. Further reinforcing this view, the decline in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on September 23 increased investors' concerns about the health of the economy.

The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond fell to a 24-month low as investors sought the relative safety of government-backed assets. Fears of a possible market crash have fueled cryptocurrencies such as Ether, which investors view as rare assets.

However, from a broader perspective, Ether is down 33% in the last four months. The decline was followed by the highly anticipated launch of the US spot exchange traded fund (ETF), which ultimately disappointed, with $684 million in outflows, according to data from Farside Investors.

The $2.77 billion in open interest for options includes $1.82 billion in call (buy) options and $0.95 billion in put (sell) options. While the bulls appear to have the upper hand, $1.47 billion in call options targeting a price of $2,700 or higher will become worthless if Ether remains below that level through September 27. The bears still have a chance to change the balance in their favor.

As the price of Ether increases, so does the demand for smart contract processing capabilities. The number of transactions on the Ethereum network increased by 15% in the seven days to September 24, pushing the average transaction fee above $4.50, up from $1.45 ten days earlier.

Additionally, the increased supply of Ether contributed to the asset's struggle to regain the $3,000 level. According to data from Ultrasound Money, a total of 58,856.4 ETH has been added to the supply over the past 30 days, representing an annual inflation rate of 0.6%. These factors have led to concerns among investors that Ether's upside potential may be limited, especially compared to competing platforms like Solana and BNB Chain, both of which offer 20 times lower transaction costs.

Bears are well positioned for the $2.8 billion monthly options expiration

In this environment, traders believe that ether bulls should win at the end of the next options to stand a chance of pushing the price to the $3,000 mark.

Ether options open for September 27, USD interest. Source: Laevitas.ch Below are four possible scenarios based on current Ether price trends, put options for call and September 27 expiration. These assumptions assume that options represent carried positions, while call options are consistent with neutral-to-bullish strategies. However, it is important to understand that this is simplified and does not include more complex investment approaches.

Related: Vitalik Buterin Supports Cello to Defeat Tron in Stablecoin Addresses

Between $2,400 and $2,500: The result is a put option of $225 million. Between $2,500 and $2,600, the result puts options at $100 million. Between $2,600 and $2,700: The balance shifts, with call (buy) options increasing. About 70 million dollars profit. Between $2,700 and $2,800: The event supports call options, with a net result of $220 million in support of them.

Basically, the best chance for Ether bulls to secure meaningful gains is by pushing the price above $2,700 on September 27th. However, the path to put options to lock in a $100 million gain looks clearer, as the current $2,600 support level continues to be tested.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.