Ethereum Eyes 25% Rally as Top ETH Whales Return to ‘Profitable Territory’
Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) could rise by nearly 25% in the coming months as the world's richest whale group turns profitable for the first time since early February.
Main Receptors:
ETH has gained 25% in three months and an average of 50% in six months after the top whales returned to profits in previous cycles.
Ether could rally above $2,750 if the June whale metric signal is seen.
Well metric signals ETH is already going down.
Wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH have an unexpected return of more than zero, according to data source CryptoQuant. In other words, this group of whales is now sitting on a total paper loss.
In the past, it has been the starting point for growth in “similar transitions to profitability,” said chain analyst CW.
Three months after the whale ratio turns positive, ETH returns an average of nearly 25%. Similarly, the price gained approximately 50% after six months and 300% after one year.
The price behavior suggests that high ETH whales will face less pressure to sell defensively once they return to overall profits. At the same time, the transition could bolster broader market confidence by demonstrating renewed confidence among the wealthiest ETH holders.
If the historical bearish pattern holds, ETH could head towards around $2,750 in June and above $3,200 in September.
Related: Early Ethereum Well Rebuilds Stack with $19.5M in ETH Purchases
Still, the whale ratio scale isn't flawless. In the year In 2018, for example, ETH fell by 17.5% in a month and fell by 70% in the same period.
Onchain data puts Ether at $2,640
Another on-chain signal is strengthening the Ethereum recovery case.
Glassnode data shows ETH recovering from the lower MVRV deviation band (blue), a setup similar to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, when the price bounced back from the lows and broke above the perceived value.
At the current rate, ETH remains below the perceived value (purple) at $2,353, which remains the first key recovery level. A break above that threshold could open the door to the -0.5 sigma band (teal) near $2,640.
On the downside, a failure to recover a confirmed price could cause ETH to retest the lower deviation band near $1,651.
Ethereum technicals are repeating a rally above $2,600
From a technical perspective, ETH has broken above its ascending triangle pattern and is now pulling back to its previous resistance trend.
Such retries are common after a breakout, as markets often visit a breakout level to confirm entry into new support.
If the upper trend holds as support, Ether could continue to recover towards the triangle-measured upside target of $2,625 or higher.
That level is set within the broad on-chain recovery range defined by Glassnode's MVRV bands, which adds confusion to bullish configurations.
A failed attempt, on the other hand, would weaken the breakout structure and risk sending ETH to the lower support zone near $1,950-$2,000.
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