Ethereum options data highlights the bears’ plan to keep the ETH price below $3.6K

Ether (ETH)'s recent consolidation towards $3,500 has significantly reduced markets' expectations of monthly options above $4,000. Bulls were initially optimistic, with the approval of an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by regulators, which led to a 23% gain on May 20. 3,600 dollars

A total of $3.5 billion in monthly ETH options on June 28 on Deribit, the main exchange, followed by $286 on OKX and $142 million on Binance. However, as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to review S-1 filings from ETF providers, the odds of a bust bet above $4,000 are slim.

Bears did not expect Ether to exceed $3,000.

Confirmed by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, Ether bulls don't mind the delay between spot ETF regulatory approval and the actual start of trading. The exact time in the next three months is uncertain. Because of this lack of momentum, bullish bets on June 28 options expiration are unlikely to turn a profit.

At the same time, Ether bears were surprised after investors were presented with major regulatory concerns on June 19 when the SEC concluded its investigation into whether Ether could be classified as a security, as described in a letter to Consensus. This decision means that Consensys will no longer investigate potential ETH sales.

Open interest for Deribit's June 28 monthly options expiration reached $3.5 billion. But prices above $4,000 and below $3,000 are currently seen as unrealistic, so the actual results are expected to be lower.

A call ratio of 0.62 indicates a mismatch between $2.2 billion in call (buy) open interest and $1.3 billion in put (sell) options. However, if the price of Ether remains at $3,500 by 8:00 am UTC on June 28, only the $257 million worth of these options will be worth it. This difference occurs because the right to sell Ether at $3,300 or $3,400 is irrelevant if ETH has been trading above these levels for a while.

Bulls target $3,800 for $500 million

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on current price trends. Availability of calls and options contracts for June 28 will vary depending on settlement price. The balance of potential gains for each side is outlined below.

Between $3,200 and $3,400: There are 13,000 calls with 97,200 puts. The net result is 280 million dollars in favor of put options. Between $3,400 and $3,600: 43,900 calls compared to 41,600. The output is roughly balanced between calls and options. Between $3,600 and $3,800: There are 104,200 calls with 24,400 puts. The net result supports the call (purchase) options for 300 million dollars. Between $3,800 and $3,900: 141,600 calls versus 9,600 puts. The benefit of the call options will increase to $500 million.

Related: SEC Drops Ethereum Investigation to Avoid ‘Embarrassing' Court Case

This rough calculation assumes that call options are primarily used for bullish betting and puts options from neutral to carry positions. However, this simplification does not include more complex investment strategies.

Unless the spot ETF receives an unexpected boost before June 28, the odds favor a balanced outcome around $3,500. This should be seen as a win for the bears, especially since Ether was trading above $3,800 two weeks ago.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.