Experts say that there will be no “quantum winter” amid rapid developments in 2024

A January 30 report from IQM, OpenOcean and Lakestar indicates that the sector will not experience a “quantum winter” after quantum computing investments plunge by 50% by 2024.

Titled “IQM–OpenOcean–Lakestar State of Quantum 2024,” the report's bottom-line view is that the quantum computing sector should be resilient to investor stagnation thanks to broad government support and continued advances.

(2/2) The report shows that quantum computing is impervious to a general downturn in the global economy, and continued growth will be supported by strong government support and continued investment momentum in Europe.

— IQM Quantum Computers (@meetIQM) January 30, 2024

Quantum in Europe

The report looked at Europe's position in the quantum sector and sought expert opinion from a range of enterprise users, suppliers and research institutions, including HSBC, Dell, the Federal Reserve, Citi and Moderna.

According to the report, fears that the negative investment trend of 2023 will continue into 2024 may be overblown.

“If anything, the fall in private investment is increasingly driven by government-backed funding commitments and contracts that narrow the gap in investor risk.”

The state of quantum technology in Europe is a bit different from the rest of the world. In the year By 2023, investments in the sector have fallen by 50% globally and 80% in the United States. Despite this overall decline, the Europe, Middle East and Africa sector showed growth of 3%.

Cautious optimism

While the outlook appears to have improved for quantum computing, there are still uncertainties that could cause investors to be reluctant.

Some experts warn that AI is drawing attention, investment and interest away from quantum computing, while others worry that it could be years before quantum computing moves beyond its infancy.

Ultimately, there is no clear timeline for the sector's maturity, so experts expect government investments and partnerships to move the sector along with what is expected to be a general slowdown in the technology sector.

That said, several prominent quantum computing companies have recently updated their roadmaps to indicate that a technological breakthrough point could occur by the end of the decade.

IBM says it will reach an inflection point in quantum computing by 2029. MIT/Harvard spinout QuEra says it will have a 10,000-qubit error-corrected quantum computer by 2026. Cambridge/Honeywell spinout Quantum recently raised $500 million in a lead funding round. At JPMorgan Chase to develop its own error-corrected quantum system.

Related: Scientists figure out how to beat ‘quantum advantage' with binary computers