FTM price explodes 68% while $1 remains a distant target

The price of Phantom (FTM) has seen an impressive rally over the past 30 days, rising 68% and fueling speculation that the token will return to $1. However, despite this impressive performance, data on the chain suggests that a run to this milestone is far from guaranteed.

The price of FTM last reached $1 six months ago. With this analysis, BeInCrypto shows the challenges ahead and what investors should look out for.

Holders, Bitcoin are hindering the Phantom's movement.

On September 22, the price of Phantom reached $0.71 after the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. However, as of this report, the price is $0.69, indicating that FTM's forecast has moved to $1.

According to data from IntoTheBlock, FTM owners are largely responsible for this failure. In particular, the Coins Holding Time (Coins Holding Time), which measures the length of time it remains unsold until October 4, has increased.

This development suggests strong confidence in the token's short-term upside potential. But over the past four days, Fantom's Coins Holding Time has declined, suggesting that holders have booked profits from the recent hike. If it continues, this selling pressure could prevent FTM prices from rising.

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Another factor that could hinder the cryptocurrency's growth is its correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). Based on IntoTheBlock data, the 30-day correlation matrix between BTC and FTM is 0.92. This matrix or coefficients range from -1 to +1, with the former indicating little to no correlation and the latter indicating strong directional movement.

The current relative reading indicates that FTM is moving in the same direction as Bitcoin. But recently, the price of Bitcoin, which reached $64,000 yesterday, dropped to $62,383. Therefore, FTM price may follow the same direction due to correlation of share of cryptocurrencies.

FTM price forecast: Key obstacles at risk of $1 target

On the daily chart, FTM price is approaching the supply zone at $0.73. Historically, every time an altcoin reaches this level, it experiences a pullback. For example, on May 10, the price reached $0.73. But it soon dropped to $0.64.

A similar incident occurred on June 8 when FTM was denied reaching this point. If a similar pattern is made in this example, the price of the token may drop to $0.60. Additionally, a heavily over-loaded scenario could see the FTM price drop to $0.52.

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However, if the bulls want to protect the downside, they should press the signal well above the $0.73 resistance. If successful, the FTM/USD pair could rise to $0.80 in the short term and $1 later.