GBTC Outflow Meets ‘Incredible Demand’ – 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) will start in the last week of March in the distance from old all-time highs.

BTC's price action is showing renewed energy as the market consolidates higher – can the bulls manage a comeback?

That's the best scenario on the table for a monthly close. Bitcoin's strong rebound contrasts with last week's bearish sentiment, which witnessed heavy losses.

It is up 17% from its current all-time high of $74,000, and is still in the moderate stages of a bull market correction, leaving many worried.

This week, the landscape is different — at least so far. The top-to-the-top CME gap has united to the bottom, and investors expect a new attack at the coming highs, not falling.

Combine that with an increase in mining difficulty and the classic signs of bullying.

Beyond Bitcoin, classic macroeconomic triggers are waiting in the wings to inject some more volatility into risk assets.

Cointelegraph looks at these issues and more in its weekly list of recent BTC price catalysts.

BTC price returns to the crunch resistance zone

Unlike before, the weekend was mostly a success story for Bitcoin bulls.

A slow grind ended on Bitstamp at a weekly close below $67,200, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

While this is actually $1,200 lower than last week, it has erased most of the recent losses, which saw BTC/USD hit local lows below $61,000 on March 20.

Now, the gap in CME futures markets is a target to watch for noted analyst Mark Cullen.

When seen on weekends, both up and down gaps create a typical price pull, with BTC/USD “filling up” within days or hours as the new trading week begins.

“We will see this CME gap fill in the next 24hrs,” Cullen wrote in part in a post on X, adding a chart showing what he described as “areas of interest.”

A look at market participants' views ahead of Wall Street's opening shows strong reservations about the strength of the Bitcoin bull market.

Fellow trader JT lists various oscillators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), all of which call for trend reversals, with signs of “overbought” on two-week timeframes.

“Bottom: Bitcoin is overbought on 2-week oscillators and bulls are re-energized above $69.1k.

Ahead of the weekly close, however, trader Alan Tardigrade saw a different narrative in the daily RSI data. The measure indicated that it was breaking out of a downward trend that had been in place for much of March.

“$BTC is ready for next week's pump,” he concluded.

Analyst Kevin Svensson drew similar tentative conclusions based on another indicator.

Bulls are hoping for a Bitcoin ETF renaissance

Closely tied to the space price narrative is the United States-based space Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These last week saw an unusual run of five consecutive days of net negative inflows for the first time in their short lifetimes.

These were driven at least in part by record outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which was influenced by a move from bankrupt crypto lender Genesis.

Now, analysts are hoping for a return to “business as usual.”

“What do you think market participants are going to do tomorrow night when ETF flows turn positive again?” Quinn Thompson, head of capital markets and development of crypto lender Maple Finance, asked on the weekend.

Thompson concluded that despite the net inflows fueled by GBTC, the largest ETF providers held their earnings, adding that “new buyers are not selling.”

“GBTC sold 31,000 BTC last week and the price decreased by ~1%,” Thomas Fahrer, crypto-specific reviews portal Apollo, continued this week.

“Incredible desire to absorb this selling pressure.”

Fahrer “freezes” GBTC directly to a positive BTC price reaction.

PCE drips in the huge US spending package.

Check out this week's U.S. Macrodata publication's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index.

The PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, followed last week's decision not to cut interest rates.

While markets were already prepared, continued language from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fueled a series of cuts to come before the end of the year.

The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool put May odds at 13.7%, down from less than 10% previously. June's odds are 66%.

This week, Powell will speak again, which could strengthen the rulings. His March 29 conference presentation, however, coincides with the Good Friday holiday, when stock markets are closed.

“After two fresh inflation reports this month, all eyes are on the PCE inflation report,” business resource Kobeisi Mail reported in the weekly diary.

Financial analyst Tedtalksmacro said last week that the $1.2 trillion U.S. spending package would lay the groundwork for further risk-adjusted wealth.

“Fed Guaranteed QT Cuts Soon. Price cuts are coming at the end of the year,” said part of a recent X post.

“You need more BTC!”

A mining problem has been set up to protect the high places.

Despite BTC's recent price volatility to the downside, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network are setting themselves up for an upward move.

The latest estimates from BTC.com's tracker show a mining problem on autocorrect this week.

This puts the problem at or near the peak of around 95 trillion, while the hash rate paints a similar picture.

Raw data from MiningPoolStats shows a new record high of 741 exhashes per second on March 24th.

Miners continue to prepare for the upcoming block subsidy halving on April 20, which will reduce Bitcoin output by 50% to 3.125 BTC per newly mined block.

However, investor Mike Alfred predicts the impact of the halving will be mass restructuring as miners adjust to the new subsidy regime.

“We will see a major correction in global hashrate after half,” he concluded last week.

“There are too many old devices on the network to squeeze out the last bit of profit before they go into the dustbin of history. Big public miners have all new equipment coming. Big profits are just around the corner.”

Google shows a lack of original “FOMO”.

In general, the sentiment of the Crypto market may still be “greedy”, but the underlying demand seems to be already waning.

Related: Bitcoin Price Aims for Big Weekly Open – Will DOGE, TON, STX and FTM Follow?

According to the latest Google Trends data, after a slight uptick during BTC/USD's recent trip to a new all-time high, Bitcoin search strength is back down.

The average Google user's search volume against Bitcoin's return to the establishment has only reached a fraction of its 2021 peak, figures show.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains below the “Extreme Greed” zone at 75/100.

For statistician Willie Woo, creator of the data source Woobull, however, the power of the Bitcoin bull market should not be underestimated now more than before.

Comparing Bitcoin to the S&P 500 last week, Woo showed a clear difference between “TradFi” and the behavior of the Bitcoin market.

“In TradFi bear markets are steep, people are worried,” he opined.

“Bitcoin bull markets are steep, FOMO folks.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.