Generative AI forces 80% of tech engineers to ‘high-skill’ – or risk falling behind

Rapid advances in generative AI are poised to dramatically change the landscape of software engineering, with Gartner predicting that 80% of engineers worldwide will be “overskilled” in the next three years to remain relevant.

The report released last week echoes what most developers are thinking right now: Generative AI tools are improving software development, with modest productivity gains in the short term and a full shift to AI-native engineering practices.

But all is not lost. Gartner insists that human knowledge and innovation will remain important and marketable.

“While AI will change the future role of software engineers, human expertise and creativity will always be necessary to deliver complex and innovative software,” Gartner senior analyst Philip Walsh wrote in the report. “Building AI-powered software requires a new software expert – the AI ​​engineer.”

In fact, the rise of AI will generally create new jobs, Gartner previously said in a separate report.

AI Longtail results

The US technology research and consulting firm divides the impact of AI into three levels.

Initially, AI tools were expected to help engineers complete tasks more efficiently – much like developers currently use ChatGPT and other AI assistants. These tools will be very useful for senior developers who are familiar with advanced engineering practices.

In the medium term, AI agents are expected to further push these productivity gains, automating a wide range of developer tasks, according to Gartner.

In this AI-generation era, the primary role of human engineers will shift from developing code to guiding AI agents, which Gartner says will transform agile engineering into a critical skill and the next-generation competency.

In the long term, Gartner sees the rise of the AI ​​engineer as a new job for humans.

“An AI engineer has a unique combination of skills in software engineering, data science and AI/machine learning, in-demand skills,” Walsh said.

That change is happening.

Thousands of companies around the world are opening positions for “fast engineers” that pay $130,000 per position. In a Gartner survey of 300 organizations in the US and UK, more than half of industry leaders identified AI and machine learning engineers as the most in-demand roles for 2024.

AI doubt

Still, not everyone has such a rosy view.

Emad Mostak, the former CEO of Stability AI, predicted in July that human programmers would run out within five years.

GitHub data shows that 41% of all code is already AI-generated, and that figure is only expected to grow as AI becomes more widespread, Decrypt previously reported.

Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman shared a similar view in August.

“24 months from now or some time – I can't predict exactly where it will be – probably most developers will not be coding,” he said.

Garman, like the Gartner report, predicts that developers will shift their focus from coding to other creative problem-solving areas.

“Coding is like a language we talk to computers,” explains Garman. “It's not necessarily a skill in and of itself. The skill in itself is like, how can I be creative?”

This shift in software engineers is part of a broader AI-driven shift in industries.

IBM projects that 40% of the global workforce will need new skills in the next three years to adapt to the growing impact of AI. The challenge for both engineers and companies is to stay ahead of these changes by investing in skills, tools and equipment rather than resisting the impact.

And some take a bleak view of an AI-spoiled future.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said that the coming disruption will take away not just our jobs, but our purpose as productive beings. “I think the real issue, the most likely issue, is how do we find meaning in a world where AI can do everything we can do, but better?” In the year He spoke at the 2024 General Assembly. On the bright side,

Musk also envisions everyone having a “robot friend,” though he stops short of detailing how everyone could afford one if we all quit.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair.