Halfway to Bitcoin Euphoria, Are Retail Investors Here Yet?

Retail interest in the cryptocurrency market appears to be on the rise following Bitcoin's surge to $70,000 and above.

According to a Tuesday Twitter thread, Ki Young Joo, founder and CEO of chain intelligence platform CryptoQuant, believes that the crypto market may be half way to Bitcoin Euphoria as the retail population has reached half.

Halfway to Bitcoin Euphoria

Euphoria refers to a period in a bull cycle where market participants embrace greed and Bitcoin's rally overheats. At this time, retail speculation activity and enthusiasm for the crypto market peaks, this group of investors shows active participation.

Since there is no specific indicator to monitor retail participation in the market, the increase in retail interest is seen in Google search trends for “Bitcoin” and an increase in the download of crypto applications. Analysts believe that the influx of new retail investors into the crypto market will boost the rally's momentum and push it to new highs.

Ju concluded that the market may be halfway to happiness by looking at several metrics, including the BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts, the total supply of BTC that has not worked for a year, and the number of issuing transactions on Ethereum. network.

The founder of CryptoQuant admitted that the movements on the retail chain, as shown by the indicators, do not indicate a cyclical high and that BTC is still in the price discovery phase.

How many retail investors are here?

Ju's analysis was criticized by some market participants. Some believe that the BTC unsecured margin ratio is not an accurate measure of the percentage of the retail population that has reached the retail collections chart. While agreeing with Ju's claim that the market is half happy, he insists that only 10% to 20% of retail participants are here.

“I can't argue with that. Using this information, it is difficult to know how many “many” retail investors have joined. This is more akin to measuring the strength of the retail cycle through retail chain activities,” Ju explained.

Meanwhile, Google searches and crypto app downloads show that the retail population is still coming in. The former sits at 53, half way from its May 21 peak of 100, while the latter has recovered slightly from CryptoPotato's December 2023 rankings. It moved to number 13 among consumer finance apps on the Apple App Store rankings.