Has an 8% Bitcoin Price Drop Changed the Bulls’ Chances of BTC Hitting $100K?

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an 8.2% retracement in four days after hitting a high of $99,609 on November 22. .

For perspective, the 22.6% price increase between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13 resulted in $342 million in buyer liquidity in BTC futures contracts, as indicated in the purple zone. Therefore, the recent price correction does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but rather a temporary over-leverage among traders.

In order to assess whether the failure to breach the $100,000 psychological level has affected investor sentiment, it is important to review the activity of Bitcoin miners. These entities collectively hold about 1.8 million BTC—worth more than $166.3 billion—and are responsible for releasing 3.125 BTC per mine.

According to the latest data, miners were reducing their Bitcoin positions at a rate of approximately 2,500 BTC per day, equivalent to $231 million. In contrast, US bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded average daily inflows of $670 million between November 18 and November 22.

Some may attribute the failure to cross the $100,000 level to the mining sell-off, but this explanation seems insufficient. In particular, MicroStrategy announced the purchase of $5.4 billion in Bitcoin on November 25, which shows strong institutional interest.

Long-term owners also contributed to the selling pressure. Following several failed attempts to breach the $73,500 mark, historical patterns in late March behaved similarly. Profit-taking by some whales triggered a two-month correction, ending with Bitcoin hitting a May 1 low of $60,830.

Is Bitcoin Bottoming at $82,500?

If historical trends hold, Bitcoin price could drop to $82,500—a normal 17% correction from an all-time high and far from indicating a bear market. In comparison, during the correction between March 14 and May 16, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings showed little change, and MicroStrategy made a single purchase of 24,400 BTC.

At this time, the landscape varies greatly. Spot ETF buying remains strong, with more institutional players reflecting a microstrategy approach. These include Japan's Metaplanet, Semler Scientific in the US and Marathon Digital, the leading global bitcoin miner. This concerted activity suggests that corporate adoption is growing, which could provide a strong level of support for Bitcoin's price.

Although it is uncertain whether these entities will continue their Bitcoin buying spree, the fact that Microsoft shareholders are arguing for a similar strategy further bolsters market confidence.

If whales and arbitrageurs anticipate a sharp decline in prices, hedging costs will rise, pushing the call ratio above 6 percent. The key metric here is the 25% delta skew, which is typically between -6% and +6% in independent markets. A swing outside this range indicates heightened fear or excessive optimism.

Related: Bitcoin's $93K Dip May Be ‘Last Flow' Before Rush: Analysts

Data from the options market highlight this resilience. The bullish sentiment seen between November 16 and November 26 has faded, as put (sell) and call (buy) options now trade at the same premium, indicating a shift to neutral sentiment. However, onchain metrics and derivatives are showing no signs of distress or an impending bear market, indicating a bullish price outlook for Bitcoin.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.