Historically accurate macro signal hints on Bitcoin price down
Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to reach market lows, with the US-bound macro model and China's 10-year bond yields suggesting it could reach $100,000 in the coming months.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin whales show signs of rally near 2023 market low.
BTC holds key long-term support as the possibility of a “oversold” recovery increases.
Story tunes? BTC turns on a ‘correct' cross.
The model, shared by analyst AO, applies the stochastic RSI oscillator to the US10Y and CN10Y product.
Overlaid with Bitcoin's historical price action, the indicator shows that bullish crossovers from oversold levels have historically been seen near major BTC market bottoms.
For example, in 2013, the crossover was preceded by an 8,700% increase in the price of Bitcoin. Similar signals were seen before the 2017 bull run (+1,900%), the 2020–2021 cycle (+600%), and the 2023 reboot (+350%+).
In March, the Stoch RSI flashed another “extremely accurate” bullish crossover against the crypto rand, a sign Bitcoin is “going higher.”
Whale behavior supports Bitcoin bottom line
Tracking data onchain supports the macro view of Bitcoin Wells discussed above.
For example, bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC continued to accumulate during the recent price decline, similar to the behavior observed during earlier market lows.
The same group started buying near the price lows in early 2023, before Bitcoin went on to rally more than 350%.
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Similar stockpiling levels by large holders were also seen ahead of the 2017 and 2020 bull runs. This setup could improve the chances of Bitcoin going lower than some analysts have predicted.
BTC technicals hinted at a return to $100,000
Bitcoin's weekly chart is also showing early signs of a potential rebound.
Over the past month, the bears have failed to push BTC significantly below the 100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA, blue line), a level that has often seen the price bottom in previous cycles.
Following the March 2020 test, Bitcoin rebounded more than 1,000% from that support line, following a similar breakout in 2019 with gains of more than 300%.
Additionally, BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the oversold region below 30, increasing the chances of a recovery as the price has fallen too much, too quickly.
A critical rebound from the 200-week SMA could send BTC price towards $100,000 by August, where the 50-week SMA and 1.618 Fibonacci level will converge.
On the contrary, some analysts have warned of a bull trap if Bitcoin fails to break above the $78,000 resistance level, which is key to a bullish trend reversal.
Below the spot price, areas of interest include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300 and the $60,000 to $65,500 support zone.
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