History shows that ETH can flow in Q1, but analysts are still debating
Although one industry analyst warned that a “hawkish” macro climate could slow the market's momentum, Ether could be one of the leaders of a possible Q1 rally in 2025.
Following the US election, the first four quarters of the new year were some of Ether's (ETH) best-performing segments, particularly Q1 2017 and Q1 2021, which surged 518% and 161%, respectively, CoinGlass data shows. .
Those returns outpaced Bitcoin (BTC) by 11.9% and 103.2% for those quarters.
Ethereum has returned quarter-on-quarter since 2016. Source: CoinGlass
According to Farside Investors, it may have seen a tailwind coming in 22 of the last 24 trading days. Look for over $50 billion in net revenue by 2025.
The chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital also said revenues should increase “dramatically” by 2025.
We expect revenues to increase significantly in 2025 as the new Trump administration enacts additional laws and regulations to further enhance digital asset standards.
Don't bet against Q1 2025 pic.twitter.com/LM1DWEmS3h
– Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) December 29, 2024
However, 10x Research founder Marcus Thielen told Cointelegraph that Ether is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2025 under a hawkish macro climate.
“We are planning a more conservative outlook for 2025. The initial hawkish policy may be tested by reducing liquidity tailwinds, unlike in previous years,” Thielen told Cointelegraph.
Crypto market capitalization has returned 12.1% to $3.41 trillion since the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates from five to two in 2025 at its December 18 meeting.
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The federal funds rate may now stand at 3.9% in 2025 as opposed to an expected 3.4%, leading to a less favorable macro environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
However, Thielen said that Bitcoin could still reach $160,000 in a “best-case scenario,” though it would likely fall to the $125,000 mark and stabilize.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,492 and Ether is trading at $3,997 – up 0.6% in the last 24 hours but still down 30.3% from its all-time high of $4,878 set in November 2021, CoinGecko data shows.
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