Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 29 – January 4 – Cointelegraph Magazine

The main news of the week

77% List of US Solana ETF Opportunities in 2025: Head of VanEck Research

The odds of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are greater than the popular betting market's rosy predictions, said Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at VanEck.

On January 1, cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket said the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. In a post on the X forum, Siegel described Polymarket's forecast as “undervalued.”

Siegel's optimism reflects industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump's November election victory. Trump says he wants to make America the “crypto capital of the world.”

Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating based on expected outcomes. The chances of Polymarket's proposed ETF listing have increased to about 84% since January 2, according to its website.

Terraform founder Do Kwon appeared before a US judge and pleaded not guilty.

Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon appeared before a US judge on January 2, 2025 and pleaded not guilty in the former tech executive's first legal hearing since his extradition to the US.

The embattled crypto founder agreed to enter the plea and be held without bail on Thursday afternoon in Manhattan before US Judge Robert W. Lehrberger of the Southern District of New York.

The former tech executive faces nine charges including securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering and commodity fraud for his role in the collapse of Terra Ecosystem.

A status conference has been set for January 8, 2025, for the defense and prosecution to share evidence and discuss motions leading up to the trial.

Montenegrin court officials have decided whether to extradite the Terraform founder to the United States or his native South Korea, a major chapter in the former tech executive's legal saga, which has taken several turns since 2023.

Memecoins continue to lose market share to AI agent coins: Dragonfly VC

AI Agent Tokens They will continue to outperform memecoins in 2025, but their momentum may end in 2026, according to Venture Capitalist.

“Memecoins will continue to lose market share to ‘AI agent' coins. I see this as a migration from financial nihilism to financial over-optimism,” Dragonfly Capital Managing Partner Haseb Qureshi said in a January 1 X post.

Qureshi says the “AI agent craze” will probably continue until 2025, but it won't last forever. People are losing interest in social media chatbots as advanced AI products keep coming.

“It's going to die eventually. This isn't the long-term disruption to be expected from AI, but it's going to be a fix for CT because it's more social than anything else,” he said.

AI agent chatbots are becoming popular in the crypto industry, providing crypto users with insights and market price predictions.

According to CoinMarketCap, while the trading volume between the above AI and data signals has increased by 7.95%, in the last 24 hours, the total memecoin trading volume has dropped by almost 21.5%.

China tightens control of crypto trading with new forex rules

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has introduced legislation requiring the country's banks to monitor and flag risky trading activities involving crypto assets.

On December 31, the South China Morning Post reported that new laws in mainland China will make it more difficult for residents to buy digital assets.

By regulation, banks must monitor and report risky forex trading activities. This includes cross-border gambling, underground banking and illegal cross-border financial transactions with crypto assets.

Chinese regulators also require banks to monitor activities based on the identity of individuals and institutions, their sources of funds and the frequency of their transactions.

Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer at Zhiying Law Firm in Shanghai, said the new laws provide another basis for punishing crypto trading, adding that China's regulatory stance on crypto could continue to strengthen.

The IRS is offering temporary relief for changes to the crypto cost-based method

The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued a temporary relief to a rule that could disable the less-than-perfect accounting system for crypto holdings on centralized exchanges.

According to the first IRS ruling, investors who hold crypto assets with a fiat broker will be prevented from reporting sales using the FIFO method if they do not choose an accounting method such as HIFO (Highest In, First Out) or a separate ID.

FIFO, otherwise known as “First In, First Out,” is the default method for calculating capital gains taxes in the US. The oldest cryptocurrency bought by capitalizing on taxpayers' capital gains is believed to have been sold.

“You don't have to be locked in FIFO like before,” Cointracker's head of tax strategy, Shehan Chandrasekera, said in a December 31 X post.

Chandrasekera warned that immediate enactment of this law could be a “disaster” for many crypto taxpayers during the bull market.

Winners and losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) at $96,601, Ether (ETH) at $3,448 and XRP at $2.42. According to CoinMarketCap, the total market cap is $3.40 trillion.

Among the largest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers for the week were DeXe (DEXE) at 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 55.02% and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 41.76%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week were Bitget Token (BGB) at 15.94%, Movement (MOVE) at 13.69% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 12.73%. Be sure to read Cointelegraph's market analysis for more information on crypto prices.

The most memorable quotes

“What started as a satanic comment on the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has turned into a complex market downturn that has attracted significant capital inflows and institutional attention.”

DWF Labs, crypto venture capital firm

“Institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels.

Steno Research, an independent financial research firm

“While the possibility of a new originator cannot be ruled out, it would not be surprising if Ethereum struggles to deliver a meaningful rally next year.”

Marcus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research

“In my view, a few weeks of consolidation could set the stage for a major eclipse. $131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. see you there.

Jason Williams, entrepreneur and investor.

“Current agents can easily be tricked into saying crazy things that hurt their brands or get arrested for stealing all their wealth.”

Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner, Dragonfly Capital

“New narratives such as AI-driven investments, decentralized AI agents, and tokenized assets point to technology-driven change, but they also carry additional risks.”

Alvin Khan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet

Forecast of the week

Ether can struggle to provide a meaningful rally in 2025: 10x research

According to Marcus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, Ether may not be the wisest investment choice for the 2025 bull run, as the asset may bring lower returns compared to Bitcoin.

Other analysts said they were waiting for more confirmation from price charts to see which way they would go.

“While the possibility of a new trigger cannot be ruled out, it would not be surprising if Ethereum struggles to deliver a meaningful rally next year,” Thielen said in a December 30 market report.

“While we appreciate Ethereum's volatility, we believe it is a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to outperform BTC in 2025,” Thielen said. “As a result, our position on Ethereum remains clear: ‘Avoid'.”

Thielen says one of the most important dimensions to watch in 2025 will be the trend toward active authenticators. However, the growth rate of validators has turned negative and has decreased by about 1% in the last 30 days, indicating that many validators are at risk of leaving the network.

FUD of the week

Cybertruck blast at Trump hotel linked to bomb or fireworks: Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a bomb or fireworks caused a Tesla Cybertruck explosion outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, which authorities are investigating as a possible act of terrorism.

Explosives were carried in the bed of the rented Cybertruck and were not connected to the Cybertruck itself, Mook said in a follow-up post on X on January 1, after confirming that Tesla was investigating the incident: “All vehicle telemetry was positive at the time of the explosion.”

Police said the cyber truck was full of mortars, petrol tanks and camp fuel.

Although authorities have not confirmed the identity of the cyber truck driver who was killed in the explosion that killed seven people, federal, state and local officials said a joint investigation is underway to identify the suspect and determine whether it was a foul play. Terrorism.

The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department said in a post on X: “The current findings indicate that this is an isolated incident with no signs of a larger plan.”

Despite the FCA's warning, illegal crypto ads have won in the UK

Illegal crypto ads continue to appear in the UK despite the financial regulator asking crypto projects to remove ads targeting the country.

According to the Financial Times, 54% of the 1,702 alerts issued by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) between October 2023 and October 2024 were due to illegal crypto ads. The report says that the rest of the crypto-related promotions are still on.

The FCA has not yet fined companies that fail to remove crypto ads that breach the FCA's rules. Regulations require promotions of digital assets to obtain permission from the FCA or an FCA-authorised business before going live.

The best magazine stories of the week

How crypto laws are changing around the world in 2025.

Crypto companies are leaving Europe as regulations tighten, but the future is bright in America as crypto-friendly regulators take over.

I became an Ordinals RBF shooter to get rich… but I lost most of my Bitcoin

I trained under the guidance of the wise old Bitcoin RBF sniper and landed in the battle between the snipers and the NFT marketplaces.

Down to $200 one day, Pixels founder had $2.4M the next: Luke Barwikowski, X Flame Hall

Luke Barwikowski says his early days building Pixels were spent working on a dairy farm, staying in surf hostels and sailing in New Zealand.

Editorial staff

Cointelegraph magazine writers and reporters contributed to this article.