HODLing power of 2-3 years

While cryptocurrencies are known to be volatile, understanding the behavior and distribution patterns of bitcoin holders over a two- or three-year period is critical to predicting market trends and potential returns.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows that investors who hold BTCs for 2-3 years often see higher returns over a 4-year cycle.

2-3 Year Bitcoin Holders Profits and Patterns

Examining the Realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands (%), this group emerges as a key player, accounting for 32.29% of the total realized capitalization of all age groups combined.

In particular, this percentage is at a high level, which indicates that the long-term investment in BTC is growing. The data suggests that many investors are choosing to hold their assets for longer periods.

Delving deeper into the historical significance of these investors, the analysis showed that when Bitcoin reached its local high in June 2019, the 2-3-year holding group saw significant gains in price.

The market price at that time was $11,955, while the fair value of this group was $1,228. Interestingly, the current market price is still hovering around this group's proven price resistance zone, indicating continued importance and influence.

However, it's important to note that long-term investors who entered the market between January 2021 and now are still on a break. Using net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) data for this pool, losses appear to be approaching the zero bound. This is in contrast to the recovery phase in 2019, when this group experienced higher profit levels.

Low risk of rapid spread in high capitalization group

Given this comparative data and setting aside the assumptions surrounding SEC decisions and broader macroeconomic factors, the analysis suggests a neutral outlook.

The report also said that the higher guaranteed capitalization would result in faster distribution and less risk of pressure on market prices.

“Based on comparative data, Ignoring the euphoria and anxiety caused by the upcoming ETF decision and the positive macro environment, I see no risk of the group with the highest realized capitalization spreading quickly and putting pressure on market value.”