How low can the price of Bitcoin go?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down about 4,000 after the approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, reflecting a growing “news-on-the-news” sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, technical chart patterns hint at the possibility of continued selling in the coming days or weeks.

What can happen next, and how low can the price of Bitcoin go?

The highest Bitcoin pain target is $34,850.

As seen in the daily chart below, Bitcoin's price path is showing consolidation in a bullish channel.

The 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; red tide) has found support around $42,120, and prices have been on a roll since January 14. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the midline. It indicates the absence of strong bullying.

Additionally, the RSI has recently made lower highs in contrast to Bitcoin's higher highs, a sign of a growing bearish divergence.

Therefore, if BTC price breaks below the 50-day EMA, it may seek the next support near the bullish channel's downtrend. This trend coincides with Bitcoin's 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $34,850, a low not seen since Q4, 2023—the consolidation phase.

Bankers peg Bitcoin to $25K-30K.

However, market analysts such as Crypto Poseidon see Bitcoin price falling to the $25,000-30,000 range, noting that this is where most recent buyers have stockpiled BTC.

In the first scenario, investors who get Bitcoin at an ETF approval price of $25,000 to $30,000 won't make much profit because banks won't pay them high premiums on these prices.

Therefore, when Bitcoin approaches $30,000, bankers can buy it from investors, which forms a new market bottom.

However, the market may adjust below $25,000 in the second scenario, allowing new institutional investors to effectively acquire additional BTC.

Another analyst, Rhaonnor, says that the market has already priced in the Bitcoin ETF Rally and suggests that the range between $24,000 and $32,000 should be held.

However, not everyone agrees as trader Il Capo of Crypto expects this level to crack before the final price target of $12,000.

“In 2004-2007, interest rates were rising and when the FED pulled out, the market started to fall to new lows,” the trader explained on X last month. Now we are in the same situation.

Can Bitcoin Continue Its Uptrend?

Bitcoin's ability to hold its price above the 50-day EMA determines whether it has risen further in the short term.

The price of BTC could rise to $50,000 or $60,000 in the coming weeks, as predicted by Lucas Kiely, Chief Investment Officer at Yild Apps and Christos Makridis, Founder/CEO of Dynamic AI. He added:

We'll see a slight rebound, but nothing to write home about. It may take a while to get over the $50,000 limit. But in June, half of it will be out of the way, and the price should be higher.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs Draw $1.4B in Two Trading Sessions

Interestingly, Bitcoin's existing bull pennant pattern as shown below indicates a possible price rally towards the $50,000-60,000 range.

Bullish pentagons are bullish continuation patterns that resolve after the price breaks above the trend line and rises to equal the previous high.

The chart shows that the price of BTC could reach $56,200 by March 2024. However, a break below the pennant's downtrend will bring the aforementioned hidden targets.

The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.