How low will bitcoin price go this cycle?
Bitcoin has recently experienced a rapid sell-off that nearly pushed its price down to $60,000. Deep buying has helped BTC stabilize at current levels, but this recovery alone does not guarantee a trend reversal.
Instead, the move appears to be a temporary respite in a broader correction, which has investors questioning the possibility of more downside ahead.
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This is what the Bitcoin signals suggest.
One characteristic of bear markets is a high relative loss, which measures the dollar value of underwater coins relative to their total market capitalization. When Bitcoin dropped to $60,000, this ratio rose to about 24 percent.
That level sits well above the typical bull-bear transition zone, placing the market firmly in bearish territory.
While the benchmark indicates a strong bearish regime, it remains below the high cap level of more than 50% seen historically. This shows that Bitcoin is undergoing an active capitalization process rather than reaching a bottom. Selling pressure is widespread, but not exhausted yet, which indicates more volatility as the market seeks equilibrium.
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Another lens on investor behavior is the breakdown of Bitcoin supply by wallet size. The data shows that wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC are constantly increasing their supply share. This group represents a small number of retail participants who often react sensitively to price fluctuations but are currently accumulating.
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At the same time, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC showed a moderate net circulation during the dip. This difference is noticeable because the public sentiment on social media is so boring.
Despite the negative comments, small traders quietly increase exposure, which indicates that they believe that current prices are worth it.
This disparity shows that optimism has not fully begun. Ideally, deeper bearish levels will see retail capital align with bearish social parameters.
Until small retail supply begins to decline, restocks may struggle to find sustained demand, limiting any near-term recovery attempts.
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Bitcoin continues to witness support
Despite the weakness of the price, the movement of the network provides an opposite signal. Bitcoin has seen a significant increase in new addresses in the past week. The number of investors making their first transaction on the chain increased by approximately 37 percent, indicating new participation in the network.
Such growth indicates continued demand for Bitcoin as prices are justified. New arrivals often come out in a period of volatility, they try to put in early to recover.
While an immediate reversal is not guaranteed, increased address activity suggests confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
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This influx of new users can provide support during consolidation phases. However, if macro pressures persist, even strong net growth may struggle to offset broader risks in financial markets.
BTC price levels to watch
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,077 after rebounding from the $63,007 support during the recent crash. Strong dip buying prevented a deeper slide to $60,000. This defense shows strong interest at low levels, at least in the short term.
Despite this trend, side effects are still high. A broader macro view suggests that Bitcoin is still likely to experience more crashes in the coming weeks. A loss of $63,007 support reinforces the bearish continuation, with the next major lower target based on historical support zones near $55,500.
A short-term recovery is possible if new capital inflows continue. Adding new address activity could help Bitcoin consolidate and find $71,672 as support. Confirming that level will invalidate the immediate bear setup and signal stabilization, although it will not completely invalidate the broader bear market structure.
