On Thursday, Sam Bankman-Fried and his family will finally hear the words they've been waiting months for: a Manhattan judge's decision on how many years the disgraced FTX founder will spend in prison in October. Guilty on seven counts of felony fraud and conspiracy.
Also anxiously awaiting sentencing: several heirs who gambled away hundreds of thousands of dollars during the length of Bankman-Fried's sentence.
On a crypto gambling site PolymarketUsers have collectively spent $657,000 and are counting the results. Betting options include under 5 years, 5 to 10 years, 10 to 20 years, 20 to 30 years, and so on—up to 50 years or more.
So what does the spread score say about Bankman-Fried's fate? Surprisingly – if the books are to be believed – the former billionaire's outlook seems bleak.
Currently, the most likely sentencing ranges are 20 to 30 years, 30 to 40 years, and 40 to 50 years; Those options are buying with a 26%, 27%, and 27% probability of paying off, respectively.
US Federal Judge Lewis Kaplan orders the odds The requests Bankman-Fried's attorneys and the convicted felon's lighter six-and-a-half-year sentence, on the other hand, are surprisingly low, according to online gamblers. The betting movement put the odds on Bankoman-Fried getting less than five years in prison at 1%. A 5- to 10-year bet in the can looks a little more optimistic, with 4% odds.
Federal prosecutors are advised At the beginning of this month Bankman-Fried faces 40 to 50 years in prison; Djinns love that number. Understandably, the odds of Judge Kaplan doing more research than prosecutors and handing down a sentence of more than 50 years are 8 percent lower.
Although the odds seem low that the disgraced founder of FTX will receive a very lenient or severe penalty, this is where most of the money is bet: it can be made on prices. is not True, but still offer small profit margins.
More than $200,000 was bet, for example, that Bankman-Fried is not Receive a sentence of 5 to 10 years, or is not They receive a sentence of more than 50 years. The former bet yields only 2.5% profit; The latter – 7.5%. Not much, but easy money in the minds of those who make such bets.
Compare that to bet-it-isn't. in order to Crazy to imagine – Bankman-Fried will face between 10 and 20 years in prison when he arrives Thursday. Placing $1,000 on the proposition would earn a gambler $7,285 if paid out.
Edited by Andrew Hayward.
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