If SEC Approves Spot Ether ETFs, Many ‘Hold Firm Out of Bad’
Despite unfavorable odds from many crypto analysts and the broader crypto community regarding the approval of space ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some analysts suggest that “there is room for surprise.”
“In the unlikely event that the SEC decides to approve it, many of them will be firmly caught offside,” crypto trader Matthew Hyland told his 142,000 X followers in a May 17 post.
“If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will fail and most people think it will lead to a crypto crash, then who will sell?” The denial added before announcing that the expected price was “price.” At the time of publication, Ether (ETH) is trading at $3,102 according to CoinMarketCap data.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas puts the chances of approval at 35%, while the broader crypto community puts their estimates at around the 7% mark, according to Polymarket, a New York-based crypto forecasting platform.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange Coinbase institutional research analyst David Hahn believes that “there is room for surprise in this decision.”
“We believe the probability of approval is close to 30-40%,” Han said in Coinbase's monthly outlook report published on May 15.
RELATED: Filing Suggests SEC Is Investigating Reasons to Block Ether ETFs
As cryptocurrency becomes a more popular issue for voters in the upcoming November United States presidential election, the SEC will be less likely to maintain its position on a negative decision.
“It's very uncertain in our opinion that the SEC will be willing to put up the necessary political capital to support its refusal when it becomes an election issue,” he said.
Han went on to argue that even if the VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications were rejected by the original May 23 deadline, there's a good chance litigation could overturn that decision.
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