Is Bitcoin Halving? Analysts compare BTC price targets with previous halves
Institutional investors' strong interest in buying the new position is believed to be the main reasons for the Bitcoin exchange hitting a new all-time high in 2024 and Bitcoin's strong performance around the supply halving event.
Bitcoin (BTC) halvings have previously been associated with bull markets, with prices showing parabolic growth and price peaks in the months following the event. Halves occur every four years and reduce mining rewards by 50%. The next halving is in about 30 days and will reduce rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
The impact of past Bitcoin halvings on the price of BTC
Historically, BTC price bull runs have been associated with halving events. Expectations of reduced supply and increased demand have already led to broad price gains and positive market sentiment.
There have been three Bitcoin halvings in the past, and one consistent thing that the market witnessed from these previous events was that the price of BTC was lower one month before each halving than it was at the time of the halving (see the chart below).
As the chart above shows, in the first half of November 28, 2012, the price of Bitcoin was around $12. A year later, in November 2013, Bitcoin peaked at $1,242, a gain of over 10,000%. The price will be reduced by half.
The second half of It happened on July 9, 2016, and the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $19,785 in December 2017. On May 11, 2020, during the third quarter, the price of Bitcoin was $8,730, increasing to all. Around $69,000 in November 2021 peak.
As long as demand is constant or increasing, the price of BTC will tend to increase as it enters the open market. This is because a decrease in supply will emphasize the scarcity of Bitcoin, which can increase demand and consequently increase its price.
Moreover, the semi-event will draw attention to the crypto industry, attract new investors and increase trading activity.
Analysts cut Bitcoin expectations in half
Renowned crypto analyst Rect Capital analyzed the 5 phases of Bitcoin's halving to explain what will happen before and after the upcoming Bitcoin halving event by drawing on historical price action.
The phases include the pre-halving period, the halving rally, the pre-halving retracement, the restocking and the “parabolic start” as the final phase, where the price of BTC rises exponentially and reaches an all-time high.
It should be noted that historical price action is unlikely to be repeated in the future, but the expectation of a bull market may prompt investors to increase capital inflows into the asset.
Bitcoin post-halving price predictions
BTC price may be on track for the coveted $100,000 mark, especially after passing the 2021 all-time high before halving.
While some are setting higher price targets, other analysts believe the halving is already priced in.
Analysts at Bitfinex crypto exchange expect the surprising demand in the United States for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to help push BTC above its current high of $69,000.
In a market research report with Cointelegraph, the analysts said,
“Our analysis predicts a conservative price objective of $100,000-$120,000 in Q4 2024, and a cyclical peak in 2025 relative to total crypto market capitalization.”
While Bitcoin's price broke its previous high several months after the halving of the four-year cycle, the price action seems to be playing out differently this year. BTC breached the previous all-time high on March 5 to set a series of new records to reach a high of $73,835 on March 15.
Based on this performance, Peter Brandt shares his insight into when Bitcoin will hit new historic highs. In a March 6 post on X, Brandt predicted that the value of major crypto could reach $150,000 by Q4/2025.
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Brandt said
“If the post-April 2024 bull trend pace is the same as the November 2022 bull trend low, the peak could be around $150,000 in October 2025. However, post-half advances are much larger than pre-half advances in previous bull cycles.”
According to Quantitative Analyst Planby, the bull market started on March 1 after the storage period ended. Plan B shared the following table on X,
“A bull market has begun. If history is a guide, ~10 months ahead we will see melting FOMO, huge price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops!”
Bullish sentiments on the BTC price were shared by Deribit and GenesisVol, who suggested it could rise as much as 20.8% before halving to the $70,000-$80,000 area.
In addition to market analysts' insight, Bitcoin mining experts share a positive outlook for Bitcoin prices after the halving. Andy Fajjar Handica, co-founder and CEO of decentralized bitcoin mining pool Loka Mining, expects short-term volatility consistent with past halves due to supply shocks and subdued inflation.
In his comments to Cointelegraph, Fajr said,
“This year will see an amplification of the scarcity narrative created by the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the success of meta-protocols such as ordinary protocols.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
