Is BTC price over in September? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

As BTC price action targets $65,000, Bitcoin heads into August's monthly close with a welcome recovery.

The largest cryptocurrency has shown remarkable strength in the past week, and traders hope that the good times will continue.

On the upside over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating its gains and is now up 40% from its monthly low of $45,500.

Therefore, the close of the monthly candlestick should provide an interesting trading environment as enthusiasm grows to break away from the nearly half-yearly consolidation phase.

Can Bitcoin finally withstand an all-time high?

Month-to-date, BTC/USD is now almost back to its original position, but more volatility triggers await.

Macroeconomic data will come thick and fast later in the week, presenting a new nerve test for the increasingly risk-averse Bitcoin short-term portfolio.

Fundamentals look good due to a slight improvement in the coming days due to mining woes.

Sentiment is back in neutral territory, leaving the average crypto investor with cold feet at a surprising pace.

Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the state of play in Bitcoin ahead of a key week for the cryptocurrency, which has been battling hot bear market calls for the past few weeks.

Bitcoin closes monthly in focus.

Bitcoin has bounced back after a tumultuous start to August, but traders' focus is now on the monthly close.

Events like these constitute volatility triggers on their own, and compared to 40% monthly lows, BTC price action has a lot to contend with.

“Bitcoin has fought its way back to a break even into August,” noted trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X with data tracking CoinGlass.

Liquidity impressions of the order book, however, show strong resistance, with BTC price separated from the all-time high demand wall.

“Let's see if there is fuel to push for change now,” continued Diane CryptoTrades.

An additional post acknowledged that it was a period of unprecedented BTC price consolidation following the last all-time high in mid-March.

“Bitcoin is nearing 6 months of peak ‘consolidation' in the previous cycle,” he told his followers.

“This is the longest it has taken to break a previous high. It was also the fastest price made a new all-time high in a single cycle (before stripping). Everything is in balance.”

Fellow trader CryptoTony has joined those calling for strong support to sustain further recovery moves.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD at around $63,700 at the time of writing, which was flat all weekend.

PCE reached the middle of the week until the Fed rate cut

The Fed's “preferred” measure of inflation topped the week's macroeconomic data as markets grew more confident about monetary policy reforms.

The July publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index is due on August 30, a day after US second quarter GDP data is out.

Both follow a key earnings report from Nvidia — an event that has become a gauge of the tech industry's health this year.

Marketing Resources Kobe's letter therefore told X's followers to “get ready for a wild week ahead”.

“Nvidia's earnings and PCE inflation in the same week create excellent business conditions,” he wrote.

PCE comes in mid-September when markets are bracing for a 100% interest rate cut and are giving more confidence to this cut than the low of 0.25%.

The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool puts the 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point odds at 61.5% and 38.5%, respectively.

“Price reductions for September have been confirmed, but there is no indication of how much, so the August payment will be decisive,” wrote trading firm QCP Capital in an update to Telegram channel subscribers over the weekend.

A 25bp cut would be too severe, while a 50bp cut would signal that the Fed is taking urgent action to prevent the economy from collapsing.

The mining problem is set to resume.

Bitcoin network fundamentals are showing signs of turning around after testing conditions last month.

The latest estimates from monitoring sources BTC.com and MiningPoolStats show that the profitability of the mining sector is on the way up despite the compression reports.

Mining difficulty, which fell by 4.2% in the last automatic correction, is set to recover by 2.8% this week.

This has left the metric inches at a new all-time high, erasing BTC's fall below $50,000 in early August.

At the same time, raw hashrate readings suggest that processing power for mining remains strong, with a new all-time high recorded on August 23. That was 774 releases per second, with known pools contributing 682 EH. / s.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported that despite the spikes in mining sales in recent weeks, their overall impact on BTC price action has been weakened by institutional investment forces.

Short-term BTC holders distribute $10 billion per week.

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) have traded coins over the past week as the price has recovered.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that the week-to-week net position change for STH Group was less than $10 billion as of August 25.

“This shows a surge in STH sales,” promoter Amr Taha wrote in one of the forum's Quicktake blog posts, along with fellow analyst Axel Adler Jr.

STH entities hold a certain amount of BTC for 155 days or less, and correspond to the more speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum.

Recent BTC price volatility has seen BTC/USD hit a six-month low with a massive sell-off that has tightened the band.

Now, STH's aggregate cost base has come into focus as a new downward trend begins.

The combined STH cost base currently stands at $63,600, according to data uploaded to X by investment firm MS2 Capital.

Among the estimates, those lasting up to one month are priced between $60,000 and $62,000.

Crypto will start higher than “peak fear”.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, last week's BTC price recovery had an immediate impact on crypto market sentiment.

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This is reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed index, which doubled its reading in a few days – from 26 100 on August 21 to 55 100 at the time of writing.

A corresponding shift in mindset suggests that the average crypto investor's mindset has moved from the peak of “extreme fear” to “greed.”

The rebound was echoed by CryptoQuant, a gauge dedicated to Bitcoin futures market sentiment. This narrowly avoided a trip to “High Fear” in August.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.